Michigan State vs Purdue Big Ten Tournament Picks and Predictions: Spartans Fall in Semis

Tom Izzo is once again working his magic in March, pushing the Michigan State Spartans into the Big Ten tournament semifinals where they clash with the Purdue Boilermakers inside Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Saturday.

The Spartans knocked off Wisconsin as a short underdog in the quarterfinals Friday, a game that featured a measly 46 total points at halftime. The Boilermakers present a much tougher test on offense but are coming out of a battle of their own, earning an 8-point win over scrappy Penn State in the quarters.

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan State vs. Purdue on March 12.

Michigan State vs Purdue odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Purdue hit the board as a 5.5-point chalk and that has since climbed to -6. The total opened 143.5 and is down to 142.5 points.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Michigan State vs Purdue predictions

• Prediction: Purdue -6 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 142.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Purdue double result -135

Predictions made on 3/12/2022 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Michigan State vs Purdue game info

• Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Saturday, March 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS

Michigan State vs Purdue betting preview

Injuries

Michigan State: None.
Purdue: None.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Spartans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up win. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan State vs. Purdue.

Michigan State vs Purdue picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Spartans face a tall task on defense in the semifinals, facing a Purdue squad that ranks out tops in the Big Ten in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Boilermakers weren’t at their finest in the quarterfinal against Penn State, not only facing a Nittany Lions team playing with passion but also showing some rust after being off since March 5.

Now that Purdue has its legs stretched out and got a little scare from PSU, expect to see that familiar offensive attack that averaged more than 80 points on the season. To their defense, the Boilermakers weren’t terrible against Penn State, still shooting 50% from the floor, but allowed a late 17-6 run from the Nittany Lions to burn up a controlling lead and spoil the day for any bettors that laid the points.

Purdue does enter this game with a great deal of respect and a sprinkle of revenge in store for Michigan State, which beat the Boilermakers in East Lansing on February 26 — one of MSU’s two wins in the final seven games of the regular season. Purdue was a dismal 1-for-9 from 3-point range in that loss and turned the ball over 16 times — two anomalies for one of the best outside shooting teams in the country, which also takes care of the basketball.

Michigan State benefitted greatly from a bad day from Wisconsin star Johnny Davis, who opened the game 0-for-6 after returning from an ankle injury in the season finale. That bogged down the Badgers offense in the opening 20 minutes. The Boilermakers, however, aren’t as depending on one player to shoulder the load, with four guys averaging more than 11 points per game and seven players putting up five points or more.

The Spartans aren’t a great offensive team with spotty efforts from their starters on that end of the floor. Michigan State just doesn’t have the firepower to keep up — or close the gap — if the Boilermakers start rolling.

Prediction: Purdue -6 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The total for this semifinal has sunk to 142.5 points, which is a knee-jerk reaction to the MSU result as well as Purdue’s rusty debut in the Big Ten tournament. 

The Boilermakers are a team that can erupt for plenty of points and break this game wide open if it finds its form from outside, and, as evidenced by Brandon Newman’s contributions against Penn State (12 points off the bench), have a deep roster to pull points from when the stars struggle.

Michigan State’s offense lacks the star power of some of its Big Ten brethren but has posted some solid scoring efforts toward the end of the season. The Spartans, who rank middle of the road in terms of offensive efficiency in the conference, scored 77 and 76 points in twin meetings with Maryland and put up 45 points in the second half versus Wisconsin last night — nearly botching what looked like a sure Under winner after that listless first half.

Prediction: Over 142.5 (-110)

Best bet

We got a nervous finish to our double-result bet on Purdue last night, especially when laying the lumber of -250, but it came through.

We’re going back to the well again, with a first half/second half outright wager on the Boilermakers. Purdue’s full game moneyline is -240 but we can take the sting out of that price with the double result at -135.

The Spartans have been a terribly inconsistent team over the past month and a half (3-7 ATS in their last 10 coming off a victory) and while they picked up a hard-fought win over Wisconsin last night, a lot of the blame is on the Badgers. 

As mentioned, Davis finished 3-for-19 including 0-for-5 from 3-point range, and Wisconsin made just 12 of 21 from the foul line (after shooting 74% FT on the season), leaving plenty of points on the table in a game in which points were at a premium. 

Purdue won’t be as accommodating.

Pick: Purdue double result -135

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