Michigan State vs Wisconsin Odds, Picks and Predictions: Spartans Shut Down in Madison

There’s a marquee matchup in the Big Ten on Friday night as two red-hot teams meet in Madison. 

The Michigan State Spartans (12-7, 4-4 Big Ten) started the season slow but have since rattled off eight victories in their last 10 games. Izzo’s squad will be put to the test against the No. 13 Wisconsin Badgers (15-4, 7-1) who sit atop the conference standings and have won eight of their last nine games. 

Checking out the college basketball odds, the Badgers are 2.5-point home favorites while the total resides at 137.5. 

The Badgers came away with a 13-point win in the first matchup, still hold some key advantages, and have been excellent both at home (10-1 straight-up) and as a favorite (11-2 ATS) this season.

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan State vs. Wisconsin on Friday, January 26. 

Michigan State vs Wisconsin best odds

Michigan State vs Wisconsin picks and predictions

Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans are on a roll, winning three straight conference games and eight of their last 10 overall. Most recently, they knocked off Maryland on the road by two points following back-to-back double-digit home victories over Minnesota and Rutgers. 

Those wins were just what the doctor ordered after starting conference play with a 1-4 record, with one of losses coming at home to these very same Wisconsin Badgers by 13 points. 

Izzo’s squad is led by star guard Tyson Walker (19.7 points per game).They don’t do a whole lot that stands out offensively other than sharing the ball well, racking up 17.7 assists per game (17th nationally). They’ve buttered their bread on the other end of the court, ranking 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom) while holding opponents to 39.4% from the field.

Limiting opposing offenses has been key as Sparty is 11-0 when their opponents score below 70 points. 

The Badgers got the best of the first matchup and will look to pile on here at the Kohl Center, where they have won 10 of 11 games. Greg Gard’s team also enters this contest brimming with confidence having won eight of its last nine overall.

Wisconsin will be difficult to hold down offensively. It checks in at 11th overall in KenPom including rankings of sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency and 47th in adjusted defensive efficiency. AJ Storr leads the way with 15.3 ppg while three other players chip in double-digit scoring averages. The Badgers have been deadly overall offensively, canning 47.5% of their field goals, 36.1% of their 3-point attempts, and 77.7% of their free throws. 

They have a ton of size as their top three scorers all stand at least 6-foot-6. That stands in contrast to Sparty, whose bigs will be at a disadvantage. Malik Hall (6-foot-7) is the only Sparty player who averaged 20 minutes or more and stands above 6-foot-6. Wisconsin used this height advantage to its advantage in the first matchup, winning the rebound battle 35-22. 

Sparty has struggled at times on the road with a 1-3 straight-up record. The lone win came Sunday over Maryland by a score of 61-59. While that may inspire confidence in some parties that this team can win on the road in Big Ten play, I’m more dubious — the Terps rank just 67th overall in KenPom and are not nearly the same test as the Badgers, who are close to being Top-10 team. 

Before that win, Sparty was 0-3 on the road including a 14-point loss to Northwestern and a seven-point loss to Nebraska. It’s well known by now that home teams typically hold serve in Big Ten play, and I haven’t seen enough to make me believe that enough has changed from the first matchup that Sparty will roll into Madison and come away with a victory.

I’ll take the home team.

My best bet: Wisconsin -2.5 (-110 at bet365)

Michigan State vs Wisconsin same-game parlay

Wisconsin -2.5

Under 137.5

50% boost available

+272 +408 at DraftKings

Here’s a two-leg SGP with my best bet on Wisconsin combined with the full game Under. 

I believe that Wisconsin is capable of winning a few different styles of games at home and isn’t tied into any one game script. The way I see this one most likely of playing out is as a hotly-contested, somewhat low-scoring affair in which every possession is a battle. 

While Michigan State hasn’t played well on the road, the one thing I trust most about this team is its defense. 

While Wisconsin has been elite offensively, it operates at a very slow pace (326th in KenPom’s adjusted pace metric). I expect Gard’s squad to be able to sit on the ball here at home and play at its preferred pace. Considering it is going up against a tough defense, an offensive explosion would be impressive. 

Sparty is rarely in a hurry to speed things up on offense either, ranking 278th in adjusted tempo. These teams combine to hold opponents to 132.1 ppg as both prefer to play at a leisurely pace in which possessions are at a premium. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Michigan State vs Wisconsin spread and Over/Under analysis

Both teams have been slightly profitable this season — Michigan State is 10-8-1 ATS while Wisconsin is 9-8-2 ATS. 

Sparty has an odd statistical profile offensively in that it doesn’t shoot a lot of 3s, attempting just 18.9 per game despite hitting at a 36.2% clip. It also doesn’t get to the line much, averaging just 18.8 free throws per game while converting them at just 70%. 

They prefer to live in the mid-range as 35.6% of their field goal attempts are two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math. For what it’s worth, Wisconsin has limited opponents to just 35.5% shooting on two-point jumpers this season, although its defense does typically force opponents into mid-range looks as 32.1% of opponent field goal attempts are two-point jumpers, the 22nd-highest mark nationally. 

Wisconsin is 47-28 all-time at home against Michigan State. That record was at 47-25 before Izzo’s squad won three straight road trips to Madison recently. It’ll be hard-pressed to find its fourth straight road win against this tough version of Wisconsin. 

If looking at the total, these two programs have gone 3-6-1 O/U in the last 10 meetings with one another. They’ve played to the Under in three of the last four meetings. 

Michigan State vs Wisconsin betting trend to know

Wisconsin is 11-2 ATS as a favorite this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Wisconsin.

Michigan State vs Wisconsin game info

Michigan State vs Wisconsin key injuries

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