Michigan vs Arizona State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Sun Devils Picked the Wrong House, Bub

It's the Legends Classic Final when Michigan meets Arizona State in the Big Apple late Thursday night.

Michigan made its way here via a dominating 91-60 performance against Pittsburgh behind Jett Howard, who scored 17 points in 17 minutes.

This will be the second game in as many days for both teams. The Sun Devils' semifinal game was significantly more competitive, and they won by just four points against Virginia Commonwealth.

What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan vs. Arizona State.

Michigan vs Arizona State best odds

Michigan vs Arizona State picks and predictions

This one is a tricky handicap for multiple reasons. The most glaring is that it's early in the season, and this is the first time either one of these teams has played games on back-to-back days. It calls into question many things but mainly early-season conditioning. How teams will react to that is challenging to predict. However, I've found a way to capture value and cash a bet.

I'll be taking Michigan to win this game by 10 or fewer points. I'm getting plus money to do this, allowing me a little more flexibility than the current spread of Wolverines -7.5.

Why will Michigan win this game? In a word, Hunter Dickinson. Last night, he was on pace to score 30 or more against Pittsburgh but sat the entirety of the second half after taking an elbow to the face.

We still have limited data, but Arizona State has had one of the worst post-up defenses this season. Teams are averaging 1.09 points per possession on post-ups, which places the Sun Devils in the bottom 15% of all of college basketball. That's a big problem in this matchup with Dickinson averaging 1.3 points per possession on post-ups. That mark is one of the best in the country, which shouldn't be a surprise, given his production last season.

I was tempted to grab the Over in this matchup, but the below-average pace of both teams makes me hesitant. The Sun Devils have a few advantages on the offensive end of the court, the most notable being their midrange scoring vs. Michigan's midrange defense.

With the obvious caveat that we've had access to limited data, the Wolverine's midrange defense has been exploited this season. Arizona State is 19th in the country in the midrange, shooting at a 62% clip. Conversely, Michigan ranks 299th in midrange defense, allowing over 45% shooting from there on the season. So I'm relying on that to keep them close.

Marcus Bagley's status remains in doubt, and that is significant. But even without him, I trust Arizona State's collection of guards to do enough from the intermediate spots on the floor and keep this close, so it doesn't become a blowout even though the Sun Devils won't walk away with a victory.

My best bet: Michigan to win by 1-10 points (+168 at FanDuel)

Michigan vs Arizona State spread analysis

Michigan is going to win. The best player on the floor will have the best matchup in the game, and I can't overlook that. This spread is about spot-on. I don't want to pick a side because of it. Instead, I chose an alternative that allowed a bit more flexibility because those three points are massive.

The spread for this one opened up at 7.5 points and has stayed the same since. What's most interesting about that is Michigan is taking 90% of the handle and 88% of the bets. You'd think that would mean the spread would move, but books are holding off on moving the number. That signals to me that they see some liability in moving it to eight points. 

I will not expose myself to too much in this game because the number is very sharp. However, if I get the Michigan moneyline at -130 or better live, that will be tough to pass up.

Michigan vs Arizona State Over/Under analysis

I hinted at this in the onset, but this total feels spot on. I'll stay away.

I'm only interested in grabbing the live Over if it falls a few ticks. Both teams have offensive advantages that should help them score. Michigan's is the most favorable, and once they are listed, I'll grab the Over on Dickinson's point total. However, as long as Arizona State doesn't have a poor shooting night, it'll be able to score a reasonable amount.

The problem with taking the pregame Over is this game's pace will not be speedy. Both teams' pace ratings on KenPom are below average. Both want to set up a half-court offense and get deep into the shot clock before throwing up a shot. Some trends suggest the Over is the way to go, which is partially why I lean toward it live. The Over is 5-1 in Michigan's last six neutral site games, and they'll likely control the tempo of this game.

Michigan vs Arizona State betting trend to know

Arizona State is 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more College basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Arizona State.

Michigan vs Arizona State game info

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