The Maryland Terrapins blew the breaks off Illinois in their opening game of the Big Ten tournament, scoring 88 points in a one-sided quarterfinal win.
That output will be tough to come by against the Michigan Wolverines in the semifinals on Saturday.
The Wolverines locked down an explosive Purdue attack to only 65 points in the quarters, and while I believe the Terps can get past UM, this Big Ten tournament semifinal will be a defensive grinder.
I’m tempering my offensive expectations for the Terrapins with my best NCAA predictions and college basketball picks for Maryland vs. Michigan on March 15.
Who will win Michigan vs Maryland?
I’ve been bullish on Maryland all season, so why stop now. The Terrapins are the favorites to win this one, with outright odds giving Maryland an implied win probability around 68%. That’s good enough for me. Terps to the final.
Michigan vs Maryland prediction
My best bet: Maryland Team Total Under 77.5 Points (-120 at bet365)
The Maryland Terrapins absolutely cracked Illinois from the opening tip on Friday. Jumping out to a 20-point lead and never looking back.
The Terrapins shot just 42% from the floor, but it was the 11-for-23 night from beyond the arc that made the difference.
Maryland is a solid outside shooting team (averages 8.2 3-pointers on 37.4% shooting) but will be hard-pressed to match those perimeter points against the Michigan Wolverines.
The Fighting Illini came into that quarterfinal game playing extremely soft defense. Michigan, on the other hand, is coming off one of its best defensive efforts of the season.
It clamped down on a potent Purdue offense (7th in the country), checking the Boilermakers to less than 34% success from the floor, including just 7 for 22 from beyond the arc.
Overall, UM ranks No. 16 in the country in defensive efficiency and doesn’t give up many easy looks, holding foes to 46% shooting from inside the arc.
The Terrapins scored 71 points in Ann Arbor back on March 5, shooting just 38% from the floor but benefitting from a slew of UM turnovers. The Wolverines coughed the ball up 16 times, and Maryland flipped that into 21 points off those turnovers.
Without those costly errors, it would have been a much lower-scoring game.
Both Maryland and Michigan play with pace, ranked No. 2 and No. 3 in tempo in the Big Ten.
But their defensive chops make opponents work for open looks in the halfcourt set, dragging possessions deep into the shot clock.
Before Friday’s outburst versus the Illini, Maryland had topped out at 74 points in the previous four games.
And when you run down the Terps’ results in conference play, they scored in bunches against the bottom-tier defense but had to battle for buckets against capable opponents, finishing as the No. 8 offense in the conference.
Today's team total of 77.5 points is two points shorter than the 79.5-point total for Maryland yesterday and sits at the same mark as the Terps' season finale versus Northwestern at home (77.5 O/U) and its trip to Michigan on March 2 (77.5 O/U), when it was lucky to score 71 points.
It really feels like Friday's offensive flourish has this derivative too high, and we've seen the full-game number sink as many as two points (151 to 149 O/U).
Game models lean toward Maryland winning, but none have them passing 80 points, and the majority sit shorter than the Terrapins’ team total of 77.5 points on Saturday, with my number at 75 points.
With Maryland boasting No. 6 defense in the country, it's more than comfortable grinding out a win in a defensive battle.
Michigan vs Maryland same-game parlay (SGP)
Maryland Moneyline
Team Total Under 77.5
Under 70.5 First Half Total
The Terrapins have more ways to win this game than UM, with five players capable of carrying the offense and a fantastic defense.
Maryland faces a much stiffer test than Illinois today, with my forecast at 75 points from Maryland.
The last time these teams met, they combined for just 55 first-half points.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Michigan vs Maryland odds
Michigan vs Maryland live odds
Michigan vs Maryland opening odds
- Spread: Michigan +4.5 (-110) | Maryland -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Michigan (+178) | Maryland (-220)
- Over/Under: Over 149.5 (-110) | Under 149.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Michigan vs Maryland betting trend to know
Maryland has won outright on the moneyline in 23 of its last 30 games (+13.95 Units/2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Maryland.
How to watch Michigan vs Maryland
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Saturday, 3-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Michigan vs Maryland key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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