The Big Ten will add a big rivalry game for today’s slate on CBS between the Michigan Wolverines and the Michigan State Spartans.
The Wolverines and Spartans will only play one regular-season game this season. Today’s game is for all the marbles unless these two teams meet in the Big Ten Tournament or March Madness.
Will Michigan show up in East Lansing? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan vs. Michigan State on Saturday, January 29.
Michigan vs Michigan State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Michigan State opened as a 4.5-point favorite but has now been bet down to as low as -3. The total hasn’t adjusted since opening at 139, but it does look like a couple of books are ready to move the total to 138.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Michigan vs Michigan State predictions
- Prediction: Michigan State -3 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 139 (-110)
- Best bet: Michigan State -3 (-110)
Predictions made on 1/29/2022 at 8:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Michigan vs Michigan State game info
• Location: Jack Breslin Student Events Center, East Lansing, MI
• Date: Saturday, January 29, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Michigan at Michigan State betting preview
Injuries
Michigan: No injuries to report.
Michigan State: Steven Izzo G (Out), Davis Smith G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan vs. Michigan State.
Michigan vs Michigan State picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Michigan might be playing an in-state game, but the crowd is going to be full of Michigan State support. That won’t help Michigan in this game whatsoever.
The Wolverines have been terrific recently, winning three straight games. The public is starting to like them again. Meanwhile, Michigan State just lost two of its last three and now the public is thinking the Spartans might be overrated.
The Wolverines are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 54% while hitting 36.5% from deep and 53.6% from inside. Michigan has struggled at the line, shooting just 68.7%, but ultimately, the offense has been solid.
Michigan State isn’t a threat to force turnovers, earning just 15.7% per game. Therefore, Michigan will get plenty of shots up in this game. The shot quality might not be as great, however.
Michigan State is holding opponents to a 45.1% effective field goal percentage while limiting the opposition to 30% from three and 45.2% from inside the arc this season. The Spartans have also held opponents to just 25.6% offensive rebounds and a very low free throw rate. It’s really never easy against Michigan State’s defense. The Spartans will make you work.
On the other side, Michigan State’s offense has been a bit inconsistent. The Spartans are shooting a 52.7% effective field goal percentage and that’s mainly due to them shooting 38.5% from deep. The Spartans turn the ball over 20.6% of the time, however, just like the Spartans, the Wolverines aren’t going to force many turnovers.
Michigan is capable of defending against the three, limiting opponents to 30.1% from deep this season. But if Michigan State can get going inside the paint, the Spartans will have success, knowing that the Wolverines are allowing teams to shoot 48.8% inside the arc this season.
So, therefore, I’ll side with Michigan State in this game, at home. The Spartans are the better defense and should be able to have more success inside in this game.
Prediction: Michigan State -3 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Michigan State runs a fast offense, using just 16.3 seconds per possession. However, if Michigan State wants to limit turnovers, the game will have to slow down.
Against both Michigan State and Michigan, teams are averaging about 18 seconds per possession. So, I’d expect both teams to be around that pace as a barometer facing each other.
Turnovers will be hard to come by, but that’s also not such a bad thing, knowing that there won’t be many points off turnovers in transition.
The Under is the play here.
Prediction: Under 139 (-110)
Best bet
Michigan’s on a nice little run right now. But Michigan State will be awake for this one.
The Spartans have just four losses on the year and the two Big Ten losses came against Northwestern and Illinois, by one possession each.
Even if this game stays tight throughout, I’m happy to back the better free-throw shooting team anyway.
Give me Michigan State -3.
Pick: Michigan State -3 (-110)
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Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
