The Big Ten schedule wraps up in East Lansing where the Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans add another chapter to their storied rivalry this afternoon.
However, this matchup doesn’t carry the weight of past meetings, nor does the final game of the regular season buzz with the usual drama. The Spartans have already clinched the Big Ten title and the top seed in the upcoming conference tournament.
Michigan State can still bolster its NCAA Tournament resume with a victory, but with celebrations and Senior Day ceremonies before tipoff — and MSU’s lackluster first halves — the home team could be a little flat in the opening 20 minutes.
I’m looking into Sparty’s derivative team total for my best Michigan vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for Sunday, March 9.
Michigan vs Michigan State prediction
My best bet
Michigan State 1H team total Under 36.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
“I’m anxious to see how we handle Sunday,” Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo told reporters after Friday’s practice.
Izzo recognizes the possible letdown spot facing his team this afternoon after the Spartans scored a thrilling come-from-behind victory at Iowa to clinch the Big Ten regular season crown on Thursday.
Red-hot Michigan State, which has won six games in a row, now comes home for this final contest on the schedule with plenty of distractions before the whistle even blows.
Not only is MSU ripe for a flat spot after that crazy road win but the program will celebrate not only this conference crown but its seniors in front of the Breslin Center crowd, which can be an emotional distraction right before taking the floor.
Getting going has been a big issue for the Spartans. Even this six-game winning streak hasn’t snapped MSU out of its first half slumber, with the team trailing at the break in all but one of those victories.
Michigan State has scored just 21, 30, 32, 33, 34, and 37 points in the first half during this winning run. Thursday’s game at Iowa had MSU losing 37-30 after 20 minutes and the Green and White were down 38-34 in the first half at Michigan on February 21.
The Michigan Wolverines enter this rivalry with much more motivation. They’ve dropped back-to-back games, watching their seeding in the Big Ten tournament slide along with their projected spot in the Big Dance.
With a win in East Lansing, UM could earn the No. 2 seed in the conference and boost its NCAA resume with high-rated road victory. With a loss and other happenings in the conference, UM could dip as low as No. 4 in the Big Ten pecking order.
Michigan is a very strong defensive team, sitting 17th in defensive efficiency and holding hosts to just 34.4 first-half points per game on their own floors. And even in those recent losses to Illinois and Maryland, UM checked those foes to just 33 and 31 points in the opening frame.
The full-game total for this matchup is 147 points, with the 1H Over/Under shaded down to 69.5 points. Game projections range between 142 and 154, with most models landing Under the current number. Narrowing focus to the first half, my number calls for just north of 33 points from Michigan State.
Michigan vs Michigan State same-game parlay (SGP)
Michigan State 1H team total Under 36.5
Michigan State moneyline
Jase Richardson 15+ points
The Spartans have started extremely slow during this winning streak, having scored more than 36 points in the first half only once in that span.
Michigan State’s depth and tempo takes over in the second half, leading to a seventh straight victory.
Richardson is emerging as the star of this MSU squad, pegged for more than 15 points after dropping 21 on UM in their last meeting.
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Michigan vs Michigan State odds
Michigan vs Michigan State live odds
Michigan vs Michigan State opening odds
- Spread: Michigan +6.5 | Michigan State -6.5
- Moneyline: Michigan +243 | Michigan State -295
- Over/Under: Over 147 | Under 147
Odds courtesy of bet365
Michigan vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Michigan State has gone Under its team total in 11 of its last 18 games at home (+3.08 Units/15% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Michigan State.
How to watch Michigan vs Michigan State
| Location | Jack Breslin Student Events Center, East Lansing, MI |
| Date | Sunday, 3-9-2025 |
| Tip-off | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Michigan vs Michigan State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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