Michigan vs North Carolina Picks and Predictions: Tar Heels Gut Out Quality W

The Big Ten/ACC Challenge has been tons of fun to start the season. There have been some terrific matchups and insane finishes. 

Neither Michigan nor North Carolina has defeated a Top-50 opponent to start the season. Both teams are 4-2 with two losses each to Top-50 teams. Tonight, one team will fall to 4-3 on the season while the other will pick up a quality win for the resume. 

Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for the Big Ten/ACC Challenge between the Michigan Wolverines and North Carolina Tar Heels on Wednesday, December 1.  

Michigan vs North Carolina odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Michigan Wolverines opened as a 1.5-point favorite and are currently -2 at most outlets. Meanwhile, the total has seen a bit more movement since opening at 148.5. You can find numbers as high as 150.5, with some outlets still holding a 148.5 number. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Michigan vs North Carolina predictions

• Prediction: North Carolina +2 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 150.5 (-110)
• Best bet: North Carolina +2 (-110)

Predictions made on 12/1/2021 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Michigan vs North Carolina game info

• Location: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
• Date: Wednesday, December 1, 2021
• Tip-off: 9:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, TSN3

Michigan at North Carolina betting preview

Injuries

Michigan: Zeb Jackson G (Out)
North Carolina: Puff Johnson G (Out) 

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Over is 4-0 in Tar Heels’ last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan vs. North Carolina.

Michigan vs North Carolina picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Michigan Wolverines are dominant inside this season. Michigan is shooting 58.2% from inside the arc while grabbing 34.6% of offensive rebounds. However, the Wolverines also have an effective field goal percentage of 53.1% and have turned the ball over 21.5% of the time.

Going up against North Carolina, Michigan won’t have to worry about turnovers, as the Tar Heels have forced them at just an 11.6% clip on the defensive end. However, the Wolverines will struggle to grab as many offensive rebounds as they have this season, with North Carolina limiting teams to just 21.8% of offensive rebounds.

Plus, Michigan is only shooting 29.1% from long range on the year, which hasn’t helped against the top competition. 

The Wolverines are getting plenty of production out of Eli Brooks and Hunter Dickinson, but haven’t been getting much consistent production out of any other player on the team. When those two are shut down or are having a bad game, Michigan will struggle to score at the end of the day. 

Meanwhile, North Carolina has way more depth on the offensive end. With five guys averaging double figures, UNC doesn’t need to rely on just one player to get going. The Tar Heels are shooting a 56.2 peFG% while nailing 41.4% from long range on the season. The Tar Heels are also shooting 52.9% from inside the arc and 74.1% from the line. 

Michigan has done well limiting fouls defensively and has shut down offenses at the 3-point line, allowing teams to shoot just 25.4%. The Wolverines also won’t force many turnovers and I’m still going to believe that North Carolina can beat Michigan on the glass. 

Therefore, I’ll ride with the Tar Heels and their offense to get the job done at home. 

Prediction: North Carolina +2 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

North Carolina has the 113th-ranked defense in adjusted efficiency according to KenPom. If the Tar Heels are going to win this game, it’s going to be because North Carolina outscored Michigan in a shootout. 

Therefore, I’ll grab the Over here. Michigan dominates inside and North Carolina dominates from long range. Neither one of these teams are that great at forcing turnovers and both teams are very capable of getting second-chance opportunities. 

Prediction: Over 150.5 (-110)

Best bet

I’ll stick with North Carolina +2 at home. If the Tar Heels can get back to winning the glass and continue to hit long-range jumpers, they’ll have a real chance at winning this game, at home. 

We saw Ohio State put away Duke after being down 13 at halftime. The crowd got into it, Ohio State went on a run and never looked back after that. The Tar Heels will get the job done tonight. 

Pick: North Carolina +2 (-110)

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