It’s been a wild season for the Michigan Wolverines. Due to injuries and COVID, the Wolverines were never really able to get in a rhythm. However, Michigan has now won four of its last five games and has a chance to make a lot of noise against the Purdue Boilermakers.
Purdue is one of the best teams in the nation and has just three losses all year, only one of which came at home.
Can Michigan pull off a huge upset against Purdue? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan vs. Purdue on Saturday, February 5.
Michigan vs Purdue odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Purdue opened as a 10.5-point favorite but has already been bet down to -9 at most places. Meanwhile, the total has also dropped since opening at 148. It’s now as low as 146 at some outlets.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Michigan vs Purdue predictions
Predictions made on 2/5/2022 at 7:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Michigan vs Purdue game info
• Location: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
• Date: Saturday, February 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 2:30 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Michigan at Purdue betting preview
Injuries
Michigan: No injures to report.
Purdue: Brian Waddell F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Over is 5-0 in Wolverines’ last five overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan vs. Purdue.
Michigan vs Purdue picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Michigan Wolverines are having an inconsistent season but that hasn’t stopped the offense from producing. Despite the shortcomings, Michigan is still shooting an effective field goal percentage of 52.9% while earning 31.7% offensive rebounds on the season, while limiting turnovers to 18.1%.
Purdue isn’t going to earn a whole lot of turnovers, therefore, Michigan should be able to get quality shot attempts and ultimately stick around in this game — at least offensively — against Purdue.
The Boilermakers have always been one of the better rebounding teams in the nation. Purdue is holding opponents to just 23% offensive rebounds this season, which is a Top-25 number in college basketball. However, Michigan can produce offensive rebounds and bang around inside.
Meanwhile, Purdue has also limited fouling and kept teams off the line at a high rate throughout the season.
On the other hand, Purdue’s offense is one of the best in the nation. The Boilermakers are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 59.2% while hitting 41.6% from deep and 57% from inside the arc.
The Boilermakers are also able to grab offensive rebounds 37% of the time and are limiting turnovers to 16.9%.
Like Purdue, Michigan won’t force many turnovers, however, Michigan has been better at defending the three, holding opponents to 31.3% from deep this season.
Purdue takes way more threes than Michigan will, so, therefore, if Michigan can make it more difficult for Purdue from deep, the Wolverines will have a chance to win this game outright and cover.
I’ll grab Michigan here.
Prediction: Michigan +9.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Realistically, Purdue will hit many shots in this game. But I also like Michigan to do the same. Michigan’s still a Top-20 offense in the nation and if it’s able to limit turnovers like it’s done this season, it will be hanging tough with Purdue throughout the game.
The Wolverines have a high effective field goal percentage because they don’t settle for bad shots. Instead, they’d rather score inside the arc and get high-quality looks. Against Purdue, it’ll be a bit harder, but Michigan can choose their spots on when to shoot from long range as well.
If the Wolverines are going to win, they’ll have to hang around offensively and just keep Purdue slightly away from its averages on the offensive end.
I’ll take the Over.
Prediction: Over 146 (-110)
Best bet
On the road, in the Big Ten, it’s never an easy challenge. But Michigan is starting to catch fire and has won four of its last five games in conference play.
The offense has always been top tier but the defense hasn’t been. The two areas where Michigan will need to be elite today are defending the three and rebounding misses.
As long as they do those two things a little bit better today, Michigan will cover the spread.
Pick: Michigan +9.5 (-110)
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Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
