Michigan vs Rutgers Odds, Picks and Predictions: Scarlet Knights' Scorers Will See Red

The Michigan Wolverines head to Piscataway, New Jersey to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in a crucial Big Ten clash on Thursday night.

The Knights are aiming for their third straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament, while the Wolverines are on the bubble and need to pick up some big Quadrant 1 wins down the stretch.

Oddsmakers don't expect Michigan to get one here, with college basketball odds opening the Wolverines as 5.5-point road underdogs. The Over/Under is set at 135. Here are my best free Michigan vs. Rutgers college basketball picks and predictions for Thursday, February 23.

Michigan vs Rutgers best odds

Michigan vs Rutgers picks and predictions

Rutgers has been a very tough team to beat this season, but that's largely due to their tenacious and physical defense. They've struggled offensively — especially in conference play — where they are averaging 66.3 points per game, and are shooting just 42.6% from the field.

Their team total of 70.5 tonight seems far too high when you consider that they've scored fewer than 69 points in 13 of 16 games against Big Ten foes this season. Two of the contests where they hit the 70-point plateau came against the worst defensive teams in the conference in Iowa and Minnesota. The other instance was against Nebraska, which surrenders 71.9 ppg in conference play. 

The Wolverines are much better defensively than those teams, and limit conference opponents to 68 ppg on just 42.5% shooting. They've been even stingier lately, allowing 65 ppg on 41.6 FG% in six contests this month. That includes a 64-point performance in their most recent road game, a loss to Wisconsin on Feb. 14. They also held No. 17 Indiana to 62 points on Feb. 11. 

Although Michigan could be without second-leading scorer Jett Howard tonight, he's actually a subpar on-ball defender, so they won't miss him on that end of the floor. Take the Under 70.5 on Rutgers' team total.

My best bet: Rutgers team total Under 70.5 (-120 at bet365)

Michigan vs Rutgers spread analysis

The Big Ten has been a dogfight this season, and Rutgers and Michigan are in a four-way tie for fifth place in the conference standings with a 9-7 record. 

The Wolverines are fresh off a massive 12-point victory at home against Michigan State, where they shot 49% from the floor and dropped 82 points against a typically-stingy Spartans defense. But now they're on the road against an even better defensive unit in Rutgers, and could be without Howard (14.4 ppg), who will be a game-time decision after spraining his ankle against MSU. 

Forward Terrance Williams II (6.8 ppg and 6.1 rpg) is also questionable. Unlike Howard, he was a full participant in Tuesday's practice, so he seems more likely to suit up after missing the last two games with a knee bruise. 

The Scarlet Knights are coming off a 58-57 victory on the road against Wisconsin, which snapped a three-game losing streak where they went 0-3 ATS. 

Rutgers has some injury problems of its own, with starting forward Mawot Mag (7.8 ppg and 5.3 rpg) suffering a season-ending injury at the beginning of the month, and guard Caleb McConnell (9.8 ppg and a conference-leading 2.5 steals per game) doubtful for tonight. Both starters are excellent defenders, but Rutgers is blessed with other players who are excellent on that end of the floor. This is a team that ranks fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom, but is just 130th in adjusted offensive efficiency. 

Center Clifford Omoruyi has been the Knights' leading scorer with 13.4 ppg and 9.4 rpg, while guard Cam Spencer averages 12.6 ppg and shoots 42.5% from beyond the arc. It should be a terrific battle down low between Omoruyi and Hunter Dickinson, who leads Michigan with 17.6 ppg, 8.5 rpg, and 55.5 FG%.

The Wolverines are 40th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, while ranking 70th on defense. 

Michigan vs Rutgers Over/Under analysis

I already mentioned why the Knights will have a tough time eclipsing their team total, and the Under on the overall game total is also a tempting play with how strong they've been on defense. 

Rutgers is seventh in the country in scoring defense against Division I foes (59.9 ppg allowed) while ranking fourth in opponent field goal percentage (38.8%). Those numbers have ticked up only a little bit in conference play, where the Knights allow a still-impressive 63.9 ppg on 41 FG%.

The Scarlet Knights have lengthy perimeter defenders that love to disrupt passing lanes, and they funnel opponents toward Omoruyi, who protects the rim with 2.1 blocks per game.

The Knights are 26th in the country in opponent turnover rate (21.7%). It will be interesting to see if they are able to pressure a Michigan team that turns the ball over at the ninth-lowest rate (14.1%) in the nation.

The Wolverines rarely turn the ball over, but they shoot a modest 45.1% from the floor, and are extremely poor on the offensive glass.

Michigan vs Rutgers betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in Rutgers' last five games against teams with winning SU records. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Rutgers.

Michigan vs Rutgers game info

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