The Michigan Wolverines will take on the UCF Knights in a non-conference showdown on Thursday night.
Michigan hasn’t looked great to start the season. With a 7-4 record on the year, the Wolverines have underperformed in the first portion of the season. UCF, on the other hand, is on a four-game winning streak and has only lost to Oklahoma and Auburn this season, but Michigan will be a serious litmus test.
Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan vs UCF on December 30.
Michigan vs UCF odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Michigan opened as a -4 favorite but has been bet down to -3.5 at most outlets. However, you can still find UCF at +4 at a few outlets. The total, on the other hand, has stayed the same since opening at 137.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Michigan vs UCF predictions
Predictions made on 12/30/2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Michigan vs UCF game info
• Location: Addition Financial Arena, Orlando, FL
• Date: Thursday, December 30, 2021
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Michigan at UCF betting preview
Injuries
Michigan: No injuries to report.
UCF: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan vs. UCF.
Michigan vs UCF picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
I know Michigan hasn’t been great this season. But after a nearly 40-point win against Southern Utah, the Wolverines might be back. Of course, that game was back on December 18 and Michigan hasn’t played a game since, but it was a win by a margin that nobody saw coming.
It shows what Michigan is capable of doing against any team in Division I. The Wolverines are still one of the best teams in the nation. According to KenPom, Michigan ranks in the Top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
On offense, Michigan has an effective field goal percentage of 53.7%, shooting 34.1% from behind the arc while also hitting 55% from inside the arc. Michigan has turned the ball over at a higher rate this season, giving up turnovers 19.3% of the time, but it has also dominated the offensive glass, earning 32.6% offensive rebounds.
Michigan will need to get better at the line, hitting just 66.8% of foul shots, but overall, the offense can hang with anyone.
On the defensive end, Michigan has held opponents to a 44.1% effective field goal percentage while holding opponents to just 25% from three-point range. The Wolverines do a solid job on the defensive glass and limit fouls to keep teams off the line.
Central Florida, on the other hand, is just not as good on either side of the ball. Defensively, UCF has held opponents to 27.8% from long range but has struggled to stop teams inside, allowing 52% from inside the arc. That’s essentially where Michigan dominates most of the game.
Meanwhile, offensively, Central Florida also has trouble limiting the turnovers and shoots plenty more threes than Michigan, only to shoot 33.6% from downtown.
Again, Michigan is dominant defending the three-point range and should limit UCF versus its average of 33.4% offensive rebounds in this game.
I’ll grab Michigan -3.5 in this one.
Prediction: Michigan -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
There’s a good chance that Central Florida keeps Michigan in front and doesn’t allow many transition opportunities. Opponents are using 18.7 seconds per possession against UCF this season, which is one of the highest rates in college basketball right now.
Central Florida has also earned 23.1% turnovers and can still defend against the three well.
Meanwhile, Michigan’s defense has been stellar. It has dominated defensively whether it’s holding teams at the three-point line or with solid defensive rebounding.
So, I’ll roll with the Under in this matchup, knowing both defenses have been great defending the three.
Prediction: Under 137.5 (-120)
Best bet
The Michigan Wolverines just do everything better than UCF. Michigan is shooting a higher eFG% and turning the ball over less. The Wolverines have also defended the three better and have fouled at a much lower rate in comparison.
I like Michigan to prove its worth in tonight’s game against UCF.
Pick: Michigan -3.5 (-110)
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