Michigan vs Wisconsin Odds, Picks and Predictions: Badgers' Recent Skid Extends to Big Ten Play

The Michigan Wolverines have a date with the Wisconsin Badgers this Valentine’s Day, but we know there’s no love lost between these two Big Ten schools. 

There hasn’t been much to admire about either program this year — with Michigan at 14-10, and Wisconsin at 14-11 — but this handicapper believes one team has a clear advantage tonight.  

Find out who it is in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan vs. Wisconsin on Tuesday, February 14.

Michigan vs Wisconsin best odds

Michigan vs Wisconsin picks and predictions

Michigan may have had a three-game winning streak halted by No. 18 Indiana on Saturday, but it can start a new winning run against Wisconsin on Tuesday night.

KenPom rankings have the Wolverines 53rd and the Badgers 71st in terms of adjusted efficiency margin ahead of their first meeting this season. Haslametrics shows an even bigger gap in All-Play Percentage, with Michigan checking in 59th and Wisconsin at 89th. 

The Wolverines were plagued by inconsistency earlier in the year — a loss to Central Michigan on Dec. 29 serving as a low point — but seem to have turned a corner recently. They won three in a row from Feb. 2 to Feb. 8, all by double-digits, before losing by just one point to a ranked opponent in the Hoosiers on Saturday. 

Michigan center Hunter Dickinson averaged 19.3 ppg and 7.8 rpg in that four-game sample, while guard Kobe Bufkin added 13.8 ppg and seven rpg in that span. Fabulous freshman Jett Howard contributed 14.5 ppg in that stretch too, so the Wolverines’ top players are hitting their best stride in Big Ten play. Wisconsin can’t say the same.

Since jumping out to a 3-0 start in-conference, the Badgers are 3-8 since, with two of those wins coming away from home. The negative trends are piling up for Wisconsin, as it’s 2-12 ATS in its last 14 overall, and has failed to cover in each of its last seven home games.

Michigan hasn’t been a terrific bet ATS this year, but this program knows how to bounce back off a loss, as the Wolverines are 38-16-2 ATS in their last 56 games following an ATS loss. They’re also 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games following three or more consecutive home games.

My best bet: Michigan +1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Michigan vs Wisconsin spread analysis

Michigan appears to be in the better schedule spot here. They’re 8-3 SU and 5-6 ATS on two days of rest, while Wisconsin is 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in this scenario. 

The Wolverines’ ATS record is nothing to write home about, but bettors should note that they’re outscoring the opposition by 6.3 points on two days of rest. By contrast, the Badgers are being outscored by 1.9 points in this situation.

Michigan is also a perfect 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS against opponents playing on two days of rest, while Wisconsin is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. 

There’s a yawning gap between these programs when it comes to KenPom offensive efficiency, with the Wolverines ranking 46th, and the Badgers checking in at 146th. Wisconsin is shooting a dreadful 41.8% from the field this year, ranking 312th in the nation. Michigan’s mediocre defense (42.8% opponent shooting percentage, 135th in the country) could look like an elite unit tonight. 

The Wolverines boast a dramatic advantage in rebounding too, as they’re 106th in rebounds (33.3 per game), while the Badgers are 322nd in the same department (28.8). 

Wisconsin could simply be tired ahead of this game as well, as it has played two straight overtime contests. 

Michigan vs Wisconsin Over/Under analysis

Part of the reason why Wisconsin is 330th in ppg (65.0) is its tendency to slow the tempo of games down to a crawl. The Badgers are among the slowest teams in the nation in adjusted tempo, ranking 346th with 63 possessions per 40 minutes. 

Sophomore guard Chucky Hepburn has been Wisconsin’s most reliable scorer, notching at least 15 points in five straight games, but has shot 38.8% from the field in that span. Senior forward Tyler Wahl has had a disappointing campaign and has been held to single-digit point totals in four of his last five overall.

Badger bettors had better hope that this team comes out shooting well, because, second-chance opportunities will be hard to come by. Wisconsin ranks 340th in second chance conversion percentage, per Haslametrics, while Michigan’s defense is tops in the country in the corresponding category. 

Don’t expect Michigan to generate many fast break points, as it’s 279th in potential points off steals, while Wisconsin is first in the nation in the matching defensive ranking. 

Trend bettors should note that the Under is 5-2 in the Wolverines’ last seven road contests following three or more consecutive home games, and 4-1 in the Badgers’ last five home affairs.

Michigan vs Wisconsin betting trend to know

The underdog is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings between these two teams. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Wisconsin.

Michigan vs Wisconsin game info

Michigan vs Wisconsin key injuries

Pages related to this topic