The Michigan Wolverines attempt to beef up their NCAA Tournament resume when they head to Madison to play the Wisconsin Badgers in Big Ten action Sunday afternoon.
The college basketball betting odds have Michigan listed as a short 2.5-point road underdog inside the Kohl Center, one of the toughest home courts in all of college ball. However, the Badgers lost last time out at home and are clinging to a projected Top 4 seed in the pending national tournament.
Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan at Wisconsin on February 20.
Michigan vs Wisconsin odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Wisconsin opened as big as a 3-point favorite at home and that spread has since shrunk as low as -2.5. The total hit the board at 139.5 points and has crept down to 138.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Michigan vs Wisconsin predictions
Predictions made on 2/20/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Michigan vs Wisconsin game info
• Location: Kohl Center, Madison, WI
• Date: Sunday, February 20, 2022
• Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Michigan at Wisconsin betting preview
Injuries
Michigan: Terrance Williams II F (Questionable).
Wisconsin: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 12-5 in Wolverines’ last 17 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan vs. Wisconsin.
Michigan vs Wisconsin picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Wisconsin dropped a stunner to Rutgers the last time it played inside the Kohl Center, losing 73-65 as 8-point chalk. The Badgers bounced back with a tough road win of their own in Indiana last Tuesday, but the interior play has become a problem — something that could be exposed against Michigan’s talented tower in the middle, Hunter Dickinson.
Wisconsin watched the Hoosiers' pair in the paint of Trayce Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson score a collective 43 points (on a combined 71% shooting) and haul down 16 boards, leaving Badgers big Tyler Wahl to post four fouls and four turnovers versus four points and two rebounds in 28 minutes.
When these teams clashed last February, Dickinson finished with 11 points and 15 rebounds as a freshman. He’s posted twin 14-point efforts in his last two outings (win at Iowa and loss vs. Ohio State) — a dip in production from his season average – but will anchor this methodical Michigan attack which ranks 272nd in adjusted tempo at KenPom.com.
Rarely do teams want to play at the Badgers’ slow-paced rate, but the Wolverines welcome that downshift in gears. Turnover troubles have come back to bite UM in the butt this year and this team coughs the ball up an average of almost 12 times per game on the year.
However, over the last three games, the Wolverines have tightened those bolts (just 9.7 turnovers in that span) and have displayed much better awareness on offense and movement without the basketball.
Michigan’s assists per field goal made have spiked from 0.521 to 0.667 since the win over Purdue (Feb. 10). Starting guards, DeVante' Jones and Eli Brooks, have been outstanding on offense while also limiting their errors, posting a combined 78 points, 37 assists with just eight total turnovers between them in the previous three outings.
The Wolverines still have plenty of work to do before the Big Ten tournament if they want to punch their dance card come Selection Sunday. The Kohl Center is always a tough stop on the conference calendar but not the impenetrable fortress it once was.
Prediction: Michigan +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
This Over/Under number is a touch higher than previous run-ins between these two programs. Wisconsin isn’t playing as slow as pace as previous seasons when it would rank in the bottom 300 of the country in terms of possessions.
The Badgers have plenty of firepower in the backcourt this year, headlined by the contrasting styles of Jonathan Davis and Brad Davison, who combined for 51 points in the victory at Indiana earlier this week.
That one-two punch on the perimeter has helped Wisconsin top the total in two straight games and go 9-6 Over/Under in Big Ten competition this season.
The Wolverines allow an extra five points per game when on the road and have found themselves involved in some shootouts inside enemy territory, leading to a 6-2 Over/Under count as a visitor in Big Ten battles this season.
As mentioned, Michigan is rounding into form when it comes to ball movement, which has peaked its offensive efficiency in recent performances. The Wolverines attack will go at a soft Wisconsin interior and once the Badgers collapse to slow down Dickinson, UM’s backcourt stars will shine.
Two very efficient offenses will go tit-for-tat inside the Kohl Center on Sunday afternoon.
Prediction: Over 138.5 (-110)
Best bet
Michigan is rapidly maturing in February and finding new ways to win basketball games.
As highlighted by MLive.com, the Wolverines are 11-2 SU when they knock down six or more 3-pointers but only 3-8 SU when they don’t.
However, those three wins with sub-six triples have come this month. Michigan is no longer reliant on those makes from deep and finding easier ways to light up the scoreboard.
Wisconsin will have its hands full with the interior play of Dickinson and an aggressive dribble-drive attack from UM’s guards, which will open space for spot-up shooters outside.
Dickinson is one of the best passing big men in the country and dished out seven assists in the victory over Iowa last time out.
These Big Ten rivals always battle hard, leading to tight games and a 17-6 ATS record for the underdog in their last 23 meetings.
Pick: Michigan +2.5 (-110)
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