The magic finally ran out for the Minnesota Golden Gophers, who watched their nine-game ATS run come to an end in an 18-point waxing at the hands of Nebraska last time out.
Can Minnesota get the money train back on the tracks or has the well gone dry for Golden Gopher backers? We’ll find out when Minnesota visits the Illinois Fighting Illini tonight.
Illinois has won five of its last seven games and is trying to hold on to the No. 2 seed in the conference over the final four games. The college basketball odds have installed Illinois as double-digit home chalk which makes the Gophers a tempting road dog considering they’re 11-3 ATS when getting the points.
I break down the spread and Over/Under total for this conference clash and give my free college basketball picks for Minnesota vs. Illinois on February 28.
Minnesota vs Illinois best odds
Minnesota vs Illinois picks and predictions
Late into Sunday’s loss to Nebraska, Minnesota Golden Gophers senior forward Parker Fox huddled the team together and made sure something positive would come out of Minnesota’s lackluster effort.
"In the last media timeout, I told the guys let this be motivation for Illinois," Fox told the media.
The 18-point defeat pretty much started at the whistle for the Gophers, who opened the game shooting a dismal 28% from the floor, including making only one of 11 attempts from beyond the arc in the first 20 minutes.
That’s uncharacteristic for Ben Johnson’s program, which has come out of the gates swinging during Big Ten play. The Golden Gophers, who average 36.2 points per opening half, have either had the lead or been tied in the first nine minutes of action in four of their last five contests and have trailed at the break just once in that five-game span.
In contrast, Illinois takes some time to wake up. The Illini haven’t done much “fighting” early on in recent contests, trailing Iowa in the opening nine minutes of Saturday’s win, falling behind 16-7 quickly vs. Penn State, and going tit-for-tat with bottom-tier Maryland in the first 15 minutes.
The Illini own an average margin of +5.8 points in first halves and face a derivative spread of -6.5 in the opening 20 minutes of this matchup with Minnesota. Illinois has covered the 1H spread just 14 times in the last 31 games, going back to last season.
Minnesota is a very active offense with plenty of movement looking for lanes to the basket. The Golden Gophers will attack a softer Illinois interior, ranking No. 1 points per play on cutting and No. 11 in PPP finishing at the rim, according to ShotQualityBets.
Illinois’ defense has buckled for big points in recent showings, including 38, 41, and 43 points allowed in the first half the past three games. The Gophers will go after the Illini and try to get them on their heels early on.
My best bet: Minnesota first half +6.5 (-107 at Pinnacle)
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Minnesota vs Illinois spread and Over/Under analysis
Illinois opened as an 11.5-point home favorite for tonight, and with vig on the underdog climbing, we could see a shorter spread as the Golden Gophers have built a bit of a following due to their ATS success.
While Minnesota came up short against Nebraska, this is still the best bet in college hoops with a 23-4 ATS mark on the season. The Gophers are 6-2 ATS in true road games and 11-3 ATS as an underdog.
Illinois’ ATS results have varied, but the Illini enter Wednesday having covered in three of their last four contests. This is the No. 2 offense in the Big Ten and runs one of the faster tempos in the conference, leading to a 15-10-2 ATS mark on the season. At home, the Fighting Illini are just 7-7-2 ATS.
Wednesday’s total opened at 155 points and some books have ticked up to 155.5.
The Golden Gophers have been nearly as profitable for Over bettors as they’ve been against the spread, topping the total in eight of their last 11 games heading into this trip to Illinois. That makes Minnesota 15-12 O/U on the season, including a 5-3 O/U count on the road.
Illinois is one of the better Over plays in college basketball with a 19-8 O/U record on the season, with a 9-7 O/U count at home. The Illini have been on an Over tear the past two months, topping the total in seven straight games and 11 of the past dozen games overall.
Minnesota vs Illinois betting trend to know
The Fighting Illini are 14-17 1H ATS in their last 31 games overall, burning through -5.8 units in that span. Find more college basketball betting trends for Minnesota vs. Illinois.
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Minnesota vs Illinois game info
| Location: | State Farm Center, Champaign, IL |
| Date: | Wednesday, February 28, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Big Ten Network |
Minnesota vs Illinois key injuries
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