We have two very evenly matched teams going to battle when Mississippi State travels to Memphis for one of the last out-of-conference games of the season for each.
Memphis has done an excellent job of challenging itself before it got into that conference play, and this is another example of that. While the Tigers come into this game with a few blemishes, they also ride a two-game win streak with wins over Clemson and Virginia.
As for Mississippi State, the Bulldogs have a lone loss on the season to Butler and have mostly handled everyone else on the schedule. Today, we think they struggle defensively.
Read on for my Mississippi State vs. Memphis college basketball picks for Saturday, December 21st.
Mississippi State vs Memphis prediction
My best bet
Tyrese Hunter over 2.5 threes (+110 at bet365)
My analysis
It's surprising to see a team coached by Chris Jans struggle to defend off the dribble, but that's been the case for Mississippi State. It leads to my best bet of Tyrese Hunter over 2.5 threes.
In this game, the Bulldogs rate below the national average in two critical areas against the Memphis Tigers: defending the dribble jumper isolations and defending attack and kicks. Both are a massive part of the Memphis offense, but they are even more vital when successfully defending Hunter, who is primarily an isolation player.
Mississippi State has allowed an even one point per possession on attack and kicks and .91 points per possession on dribble jumpers. Both are above the national average, which isn't good enough against Memphis.
If Tyrese Hunter is anything, he is an elite scorer. He's come down a little bit from his Maui Invitational performance, which saw him make an eye-popping 14 threes over three games, but he's certainly capable of going insane at any moment. He's getting an immense volume of threes up, too, which may be the most critical aspect of this play.
Over the last three games, Hunter has averaged 7.3 threes per game and seemingly always takes more against power four competition. Even on the season overall, Hunter has averaged 6.4 threes per game. That high number makes this plus money price hard to turn down.
It holds even more accurate, given he'll enter this game shooting nearly 50% from deep. That number will regress because nobody will finish a season shooting that from three.
However, will that come against a team whose main issue this season has been containing the dribble against the best isolation scorer on the floor? I don't think so. I'd play this to -105.
Mississippi State vs Memphis same-game parlay
Tyrese Hunter over 2.5 threes
Memphis moneyline
We keep it relatively simple here for our same-game parlay and pair the Memphis moneyline with our best bet. The essentials against Memphis defensively are straightforward and include being good to great isolation defenders, but the Bulldogs haven't been that.
PG Josh Hubbard will likely have a few moments where he tries to put Mississippi State on his shoulders and pull off the win, but it won't be enough here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mississippi State vs Memphis odds
Mississippi State vs Memphis live odds
Mississippi State vs Memphis opening odds
- Spread: Mississippi State +1 (-110) | Memphis -1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Mississippi State (-110) | Memphis (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 (-110) | Under 150.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mississippi State vs Memphis betting trend to know
Mississippi State has hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 34 games (+5.65 Units / 2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Memphis.
How to watch Mississippi State vs Memphis
| Location: | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-21-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Mississippi State vs Memphis key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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