Mississippi State vs Tennessee Odds, Picks and Predictions: Vols Flex Defensive Muscles

The Mississippi State Bulldogs face off against the No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers in NCAA hoops action on Tuesday night.

Both of these SEC programs are 11-2 thanks to some stingy defensive play but the Bulldogs are unranked and enter this contest as 9.5-point road pups.

This is the lowest total on the college basketball odds board today with the Over/Under currently sitting at 123 after opening at 121. Check out my best college basketball picks and predictions for Mississippi State vs. Tennessee below.  

Mississippi State vs Tennessee best odds

Mississippi State vs Tennessee picks and predictions

Mississippi State's team total is sitting at a very low 56.5 but given how dominant Tennessee has been defensively and how inept the Bulldogs have been on offense, I'm still backing the Under. 

The Volunteers are holding opponents to just 53.2 ppg and while they're coming off a game where they allowed 59 to Mississippi, that contest was on the road and the Rebels are better offensively (and play at a faster pace) than the Bulldogs. 

The Vols have shut down quality opponents this season, limiting Kansas to 50 points and Maryland to 53. Even in their 75-70 loss to Arizona, they held the top-rated offensive team in the country well below its season averages, limiting the fast-paced Wildcats to 43% shooting as opposed to their 52.2% mark for the season.

Now, Tennessee will get to take on an MSU squad that is just 258th in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 48%. That number has dropped even further to 43.6% over its last three games. 

The Bulldogs are coming off a game against Alabama where they went a pathetic 11-31 from 2-point range and before that, they scored just 52 points on 38% shooting vs. Drake.

Even in their two most impressive victories of the season, they were contained on offense, scoring just 52 points against Utah and dropping 58 points on 33% shooting from inside the arc vs. Marquette.

My best bet: Mississippi State team total Under 56.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Mississippi State vs Tennessee spread analysis

The Volunteers have won back-to-back contests since losing to No.4 Arizona on the road two weeks ago. That close loss to the Wildcats was the Vols' only defeat in their last 11 games and they boasted impressive victories against Kansas and Maryland during that span.

In their previous contest last Wednesday, they edged out Mississippi 63-59 on the road. The Rebels were limited to 37% shooting from the field and had 15 turnovers, which is exactly the sort of elite defensive play we've come to expect from Tennessee. 

Tennessee is first in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom and is holding opponents to 33.2% shooting. The Vols have been far less impressive on the other side of the floor where they shoot just 41.9% from the field.

Mississippi State has an identical 11-2 record but has lost two in a row and enjoyed a much easier out-of-conference schedule. The Bulldogs are fresh off a 78-67 home defeat to Alabama and before that, lost 58-52 to Drake on neutral ground. 

They are also very tough defensively and hold opponents to 36.6% shooting while ranking sixth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.

However, they're even worse than the Vols when it comes to scoring and are 140th in adjusted offensive efficiency while Tennessee is 54th. 

Mississippi State vs Tennessee Over/Under analysis

The total for this SEC battle opened at an incredibly low 121 but has ticked up to 123 at most books as of noon. 

Both teams shoot the ball very poorly (especially from deep) and have high turnover rates, but both squads are excellent on the offensive glass. 

The Bulldogs have just one player scoring in double digits in forward Tolu Smith (14.8 points, 8.5 rebounds per game). They also play at an extremely slow pace, ranking 332nd in the nation in adjusted tempo.

The Vols have five players averaging double digits in scoring, however, Santiago Vescovi leads the team with a modest 12.7 ppg and four of those five leading scorers shoot below 37% from the floor. 

Tennessee ranks 204th in adjusted tempo and that combined with its dominant defense has led to some very low-scoring contests. 

Mississippi State vs Tennessee betting trend to know

The Under is 5-2 in Tennessee's last seven home games while going 6-1 in Mississippi State's previous seven contests on the road. Find more College basketball betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Tennessee.

Mississippi State vs Tennessee game info

Mississippi State vs Tennessee key injuries

Mississippi State: No key injuries.
Tennessee: No key injuries.

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