Mississippi vs Auburn Picks and Predictions: Tigers Play Down to Another Opponent

The Auburn Tigers are a legitimate national title contender this season but have hit a little bit of a rough patch, losing twice in their last four games after losing just once in their first 23.

Now, a matchup against the inconsistent Mississippi Rebels on Wednesday night looks like a great get-right spot for the Tigers, but can they cover the hefty home college basketball chalk in the process?

Find out in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Mississippi vs. Auburn on February 23.

Mississippi vs Auburn odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Auburn opened this SEC showdown as 16-point home favorites. Mississippi saw some early action, dropping the line to 15.5 but that didn’t last long as the Tigers are back up to 16.5. That’s a bit of an adjustment since the Jan. 15 meeting in Mississippi where the Tigers were 7.5-point road favorites.

The total hit the board at about 140 and has held steady as of early Wednesday afternoon.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Mississippi vs Auburn predictions

• Prediction: Mississippi +16.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 140.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Under 67 1H total (-110)

Predictions made on 2/23/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Mississippi vs Auburn game info

• Location: Auburn Arena, Auburn, AL
• Date: Wednesday, February 23, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: SEC Network

Mississippi at Auburn betting preview

Injuries

Mississippi: Jarkel Joiner G (Questionable), Matthew Murrell G (Questionable).
Auburn: No key injuries to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Auburn is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a favorite. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mississippi vs. Auburn.

Mississippi vs Auburn picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Early in the season, Auburn was printing money like an ATM, going 15-4 ATS through its first 19 games. But the Tigers have stopped roaring at the betting window of late, going 3-5 ATS in their last eight games and 1-4 ATS in their last five.

So, what has happened?

Obviously, the Tigers are still one of the best teams in the country. Auburn ranks eighth in adjusted efficiency margin, 16th in offense, and ninth in defense, but the Tigers may be resting on their laurels down the stretch, playing up or down to the level of their competition.

Road losses to Florida and Arkansas aren’t something to be ashamed of, but barely beating Georgia and needing a late second-half push against Vanderbilt in games where they were 16- and 14.5-point favorites is a bit more interesting. And, Mississippi falls into that latter category.

Mississippi snapped a four-game losing streak with a convincing win over Georgia and should have some confidence heading into this matchup. Now, the Rebels are a wildly inconsistent offensive bunch, but if they are willing to make the extra pass, that should open up some looks on the outside. 

Auburn is a big favorite for a reason and will be motivated after the loss to Florida but Mississippi should be pesky enough on the glass to give the Tigers a headache and stay within this big number.

Prediction: Mississippi +16.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Obviously, the Tigers can roar on offense, averaging 79.8 points per game, but that has dropped to 74.2 over this five-game stretch which has seen them go just 1-4 ATS. Auburn is shooting just 41.6% from the floor over that stretch and while Mississippi isn’t the strongest defensive team, it isn’t the worst either, ranking 85th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Meanwhile, the Rebels' inconsistencies on offense means they are the lowest-scoring team in the SEC at just 68.8 points per game. They now face an Auburn defense that ranks eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows just 67 points per game.

The other thing to note here is that if Mississippi wants to keep this game close, it will have to slow down the game and force Auburn to grind out possessions in the halfcourt, and the Rebels ranks 274th in adjusted tempo. This means we like this one to sneak Under the number.

Prediction: Under 140.5 (-110)

Best bet

Auburn is 14-0 at home. It is coming off a tough loss. So, you can expect one of the best defenses in the country to come out roaring in this matchup. The Tigers allow opponents to shoot just 38.4% from the field and already surrender just 30.8 first half-points per game. Mississippi puts up just 33.1 first-half points per game and is coming into a tough environment. 

Additionally, Auburn is averaging 32.6 first-half points per game over the last five games. So, this game looks like a good bet to be low scoring early.

Pick: Under 67 first-half total (-110)

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