The No. 7 Kentucky Wildcats try to bounce back from a weekend full of upsets as they host the Mississippi Rebels in NCAA basketball action on Tuesday.
Mississippi is near the bottom of the SEC standings and the college basketball betting lines for this contest reflect that with the Wildcats entering as massive 17-point home favorites.
Here are our best free Mississippi vs. Kentucky picks and predictions for March 1, with tipoff at 7 p.m. ET.
Mississippi vs Kentucky odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board with Kentucky at -16.5 with the Over/Under at 143. The line has shifted slightly to UK -17 while the total has plummeted all the way to 140 (and even 139.5 at some books) as of 9:30 a.m. ET.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Mississippi vs Kentucky predictions
Predictions made on 3/1/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mississippi vs Kentucky game info
• Location: Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center, Lexington, KY
• Date: Tuesday, March 1, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Mississippi at Kentucky betting preview
Injuries
Mississippi: Daeshun Ruffin PG (Out).
Kentucky: C.J. Fredrick SG (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Wildcats are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games as a favorite. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mississippi vs. Kentucky.
Mississippi vs Kentucky picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
By now everybody is probably tired of hearing about upset Saturday when the Top 6 ranked teams in the country (and No. 9 Texas Tech) all fell to lower-ranked opponents.
However, a few of those programs, including Kentucky, weren't actually favored in their matchups with the Wildcats pushing as 2-point road dogs against a very good Arkansas team. Kentucky is still 23-6 SU (13-15-1 ATS) on the season, including a perfect 17-0 at home.
The Wildcats are third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. They also have the second-best odds of winning the National Championship in what is looking like a wide-open field of contenders.
One team that won't be anywhere near that list of contenders is Mississippi. The Rebels are coming off a 76-66 home loss to Texas A&M and have just one win in their last seven games. Mississippi has struggled on both ends of the floor and injuries to their best players haven't helped matters.
The Rebels were without leading scorer Jarkel Joiner (14.1 points per game) for all of January and as soon as he was set to return to the lineup, they lost second-leading scorer and top passer Daeshun Ruffin (12.6 points and 3.4 assists per game) to a torn ACL.
While there is a massive talent disparity between these sides, 17 points is a lot to spot anybody. Keep in mind that while the Rebels are just 5-12 SU in their last 17 games, only one of those losses came by more than 15 points (surprisingly against fellow bottom-feeder Missouri on January 11).
Meanwhile, the Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as chalk and just 1-4 ATS in their previous five contests against teams below .500. Take the Rebels with the points.
Prediction: Mississippi +17 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Rebels certainly aren't good on offense — but they are better with a healthy Joiner in the backcourt — and they're also terrible defensively. The Over has cashed in six straight games for Mississippi while going 8-1 O/U in Joiner's last nine contests.
The Wildcats are an athletic squad that can put up points in a hurry. Point guard Sahvir Wheeler is third in the country with 7.0 assists per game and all four of the other starters average over 11 ppg led by big man Oscar Tshiebwe and his 16.9 ppg on 59.7 FG%.
Kentucky is eighth in the country with 80.3 ppg and at home and that number surges to 85.7 ppg on a sizzling 57.2% shooting from two-point range.
With the Wildcats going 6-2 O/U in their last eight games at Rupp Arena, go against the line movement and back the Over 140 tonight.
Prediction: Over 140 (-110)
Best bet
This is the Rebels' first game against Kentucky this season, but they have played five games against the four other top teams in the SEC. They pushed Tennessee into overtime, lost 64-55 to Arkansas, lost by nine points at home and 13 on the road to Auburn, and fell by 14 points to Alabama (but managed to drop 83 points in that contest).
If they didn't get blown out by more than 17 points to those formidable squads, I'm not sure if Kentucky will be the outlier, especially with how inconsistent the Wildcats have been at covering as faves this season. This line is simply too large to ignore for the road underdogs.
Pick: Mississippi +17 (-110)
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