The No. 21 ranked Mississippi Rebels head to Starkville on Saturday to take on the No. 15 Mississippi State Bulldogs.
This is the first time these schools have faced off with both ranked in the Top 25 and my Mississippi vs. Mississippi State predictions are betting on Rebels big man Malik Dia to continue his red-hot play. Here are my best free college basketball picks for this rivalry showdown on January 18.
Mississippi vs Mississippi State prediction
My best bet
Malik Dia Over 11.5 points (+110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Mississippi Rebels are 15-2 and are fresh off a 74-64 road win against No. 4 Alabama. They won outright as a 12-point underdogs by holding Alabama's highly-rated offense to 5-20 shooting from deep while forcing 21 turnovers. Malik Dia was also crucial to that victory with the big man scoring 23 points on 11-21 shooting and adding 19 boards.
With Dia's points total opening at 11.5 for this game, we're getting a gift of a number for a guy that has emerged as Mississippi's top scoring option over the last two weeks. The 6-foot-9, 250-pound forward averaged 16.9 ppg with Belmont last year but saw a limited role at the start of this season.
In the first 14 games this season, Dia averaged 7.1 points and 5.5 rebounds in 17 minutes per game. But in his last three games he has logged 28 mpg with 21.0 ppg and 11.3 rpg. The Rebels had lacked size and rebounding at times this year and giving Dia more burn has helped fix those issues.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are on a two-game skid after losing 95-90 at home to Kentucky and getting clobbered 88-66 by No. 1 Auburn despite the Tigers missing Wooden Award candidate Johni Broome. MSU was cooked from the outside in both contests and now sits 242nd in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (34.8%).
The Bulldogs need to do a better job of defending the arc and I think coach Chris Jans will emphasize that area entering this rivalry game. That should ensure that Dia continues to get good looks inside.
Mississippi vs Mississippi State same-game parlay (SGP)
Malik Dia Over 11.5 points
Mississippi +6
Under 146.5
This could be a letdown spot for the Rebels after a massive road win but it's tough not to see them locked in for a rivalry game. Although Humphrey Coliseum is a tough venue for visitors, the Rebels benefit from a shorter travel time.
This spread has ticked up from +4.5 to +6 despite KenPom and Bart Torvik projecting the Rebels to lose by three and four points respectively. And those season-long analytics don't account for the larger role that Dia has played lately.
The Rebels are 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom while ranking in the Top 20 in opponent 3PT% (29.1%) and opponent turnover rate (22.4%). If they could shut down Alabama's highly-efficient attack, they can slow down the Bulldogs who shoot just 29% from deep in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games. With that elite defense, the Under is 9-1 in the Rebels last 10 games.
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Mississippi vs Mississippi State odds
Mississippi vs Mississippi State live odds
Mississippi vs Mississippi State opening odds
- Spread: Mississippi +4.5 | Mississippi State -4.5
- Moneyline: Mississippi +230 | Mississippi State -280
- Over/Under: Over 147.5 | Under 147.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mississippi vs Mississippi State betting trend to know
The Rebels are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi vs. Mississippi State.
How to watch Mississippi vs Mississippi State
| Location: | Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-18-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Mississippi vs Mississippi State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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