The Kansas Jayhawks will look to hand the Missouri Tigers another loss on the season. The SEC team is currently 5-4 on the season and has some extremely bad losses.
On the other hand, the Jayhawks look like one of the best teams in the nation with just one loss on the season. Since a shocking loss to Dayton, the Jayhawks have won three straight against Iona, St. John’s, and UTEP.
Those three teams are about in the same range as Missouri according to KenPom rankings. Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Missouri Tigers vs Kansas Jayhawks on December 11.
Missouri vs Kansas odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Kansas Jayhawks have opened as 23-point favorites with a couple of sites already moving the line to 23.5. On the other hand, the total has jumped from 143 to 143.5 at most outlets.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Missouri vs Kansas predictions
Predictions made on 12/10/2021 at 10:25 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Missouri vs Kansas game info
• Location: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS
• Date: Saturday, December 11, 2021
• Tip-off: 3:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Missouri at Kansas betting preview
Injuries
Missouri: Trevon Brazile F (Out), Jarron Coleman G (Out).
Kansas: David McCormack F (Questionable), Bob Pettiford G (Abdominal).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Jayhawks are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points. Find more NCAA betting trends for Missouri vs. Kansas.
Missouri vs Kansas picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
There is absolutely no question that Kansas will win this game. But the question is by how many points. Personally, I’m thinking 23.5 is just a little too much for Kansas, even at home.
The Missouri Tigers haven’t been all that impressive this year. The Tigers are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 44.3% and have a turnover percentage of 22.4% on the season. Missouri is also shooting just 24% from three and just 48.5% from inside the arc.
For a team to shoot 24% from deep is just absurdly bad. I don’t think it can get much worse than that. The good news is that Missouri has been dominating the glass, earning 34.9% offensive rebounds on the season. If David McCormack is out for this game, that will be a huge advantage for Missouri as McCormack averages 5.9 rebounds per game this season.
Defensively, the Tigers have played solid defense this year. They’ve held opponents to a 50.9% effective field goal percentage and have forced 21.4% turnovers on the season. Missouri has also done well on the glass, holding opponents to 23% offensive rebounds, and has watched opponents struggle from the line, for whatever reason.
Kansas, on the other hand, has been one of the best offenses in the nation. The Jayhawks are averaging 35.2% from deep and 59.5% from inside the arc, which is fourth-best in the nation.
On the defensive side of the ball, Kansas has been above average against some really good teams. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tigers find their way on the glass in this one and keep plays alive. I also don’t think Missouri can do much worse from downtown this season. I’ll take an SEC team and the 23.5 points.
Prediction: Missouri +23.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
If Missouri wants to win this game, they’ll have to slow things down. Teams have struggled to score quickly against the Tigers this year as opponents have used 18.7 seconds per possession on offense against Missouri this season.
On the other hand, while Missouri should shoot better than they’ve been recently, don’t expect it to be all night and day. Missouri still isn’t a great offense. It’s been the defense keeping the Tigers in games.
Give me the Under here.
Prediction: Under 143.5 (-110)
Best bet
Kansas is an extremely good team. But if you’re going to give me 23.5 points for an SEC team, I’ll happily take it.
Missouri has not performed very well this season, and it’s due to poor shooting and high turnovers. Ultimately, Missouri hasn’t been awful in games if they just clean up a couple areas.
Of course, it’s hard to clean up multiple areas against one of the best teams in the nation, but the Tigers will do enough to at least cover this game.
Pick: Missouri +23.5 (-110)
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