The North Carolina State Wolfpack face the No. 9 North Carolina Tar Heels in ACC college basketball action on Saturday afternoon. UNC is atop the conference standings with a 14-3 mark and looks like a national title contender, while the Wolfpack are eighth in the conference with a 9-8 record and are outside the bubble.
The Tar Heels beat the Wolfpack by 13 points earlier this season, and are expected to win again today as college basketball odds have them as 10.5-point home favorites. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for NC State vs. North Carolina on March 2.
NC State vs North Carolina best odds
NC State vs North Carolina picks and predictions
The North Carolina Tar Heels have owned this rivalry in recent years, and they went to Raleigh and beat the NC State Wolfpack 67-54 when these teams previously clashed on January 10.
I'm expecting more points this time around since the Wolfpack have surrendered 81.4 points per game on 50.3% shooting over their last five games. NC State struggles to defend the arc, ranking 264th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (35.1%), with that number ticking up to 37.3% on the road. That's bad news against a UNC squad that shoots 35.4% from long range
The biggest defensive strength of the Wolfpack is their ability to force turnovers, but the Tar Heels do an excellent job of taking care of the ball, ranking 24th in the country in turnover rate.
On the other side of the floor, the Wolfpack are just outside the Top 200 in 2-point percentage (49.7%), with that number dropping to 44.9% on the road. They had a horrendous shooting performance in the first clash between these schools this year, shooting just 27% from the floor and going 2-20 from beyond the arc.
While some positive regression is likely from those extreme numbers, I still don't see them having much success in Chapel Hill against a UNC team that is seventh in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.
This is an NC State offense that limits turnovers but rarely attacks the rim and settles for too many shots from midrange. They'll have a tough time getting to the basket against the Tar Heels, who are 355th in the country in opponent rim frequency per ShotQualityBets. They'll also struggle to knock down shots from the arc since UNC is 24th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (30.7%). Back the Tar Heels to win by double-digits once again.
My best bet: North Carolina -10.5 (-110 at bet365)
NC State vs North Carolina same-game parlay
North Carolina -10.5
RJ Davis Over 2.5 threes made
Harrison Ingram Over 9.5 rebounds
Guard RJ Davis leads North Carolina with 21.7 ppg on 43/41/90 shooting splits. Davis shot just 2-9 from inside the arc in the previous meeting between these teams but still went 4-10 from long range. With Davis going Over 2.5 3-pointers made in 17 of his last 22 games, expect him to eclipse that number again versus a Wolfpack squad that gets torched from deep.
Forward Harrison Ingram has been a huge transfer addition for UNC and has been incredible on the glass in conference play. He has grabbed double-digit boards in 11 of his last 14 contests and is averaging 11.6 rpg over that span. With the Wolfpack playing at an above-average tempo and sitting outside the Top 200 in rebounding rate, Ingram should get plenty of rebounding opportunities today.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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NC State vs North Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened with North Carolina at -12 with the Over/Under at 154. The Under has ticked down to 153 while money has come in on the visitors, slimming the spread to -10.5.
Despite being one of the top teams in the country and going 12-1 at home, the Tar Heels haven't had an easy time covering the spread lately. They are 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS in their last eight games with all of those defeats coming as a favorite. In their last game, they needed a heroic 42-point performance from Davis to edge Miami 75-71 despite entering that contest as 15-point home faves.
The Wolfpack are coming off a 90-83 loss on the road against Florida State. They have gone 4-7 SU and 4-6-1 ATS in their previous 11 contests. They are just 5-10 against opponents in Quadrants 1 and 2, and desperately need some big wins down the stretch and a deep run into the ACC Tournament if they want to make March Madness.
NC State vs North Carolina betting trend to know
The Tar Heels are 10-2 SU and ATS in the last 12 meetings between these in-state rivals. Find more college basketball betting trends for NC State vs. North Carolina.
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NC State vs North Carolina game info
| Location: | Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, March 2, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
NC State vs North Carolina key injuries
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