College Basketball Best Bets This Week: Purdue Poised to Pound Illinois in the Paint

Gear up for a thrilling week of college hoops with our best bets from the NCAA's most talked-about matchups.

Ryan Murphy - Managing Editor at Covers.com
Ryan Murphy • Managing Editor
Jan 5, 2024 • 08:03 ET • 4 min read
Purdue Boilermakers star Zach Edey in NCAAB action.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The more things change, the more they stay the same. The calendar may have flipped to 2024 on Monday, but the college basketball landscape remains virtually unchanged, with Purdue atop the AP Top 25 rankings for the third straight week. Led by reigning Naismith Award-winner Zach Edey, the 12-1 Boilermakers have already downed four ranked opponents this season and can add a fifth victim to that tally on Friday when they host Illinois.

There's no shortage of marquee matchups this week as all 353 Division I teams return to the hardwood following Christmas break. We've hand-picked the best games on college basketball's jam-packed schedule and have tasked our experts with providing analysis for each matchup. Below you'll find the latest odds along with a best bet for every game we're tracking. Let the games begin!


Best bet: Saint Peter's +2.5 (-110 at bet365)

The Gaels have been shooting the ball much better than St. Peters but we know that shooting can dry up on the road. The Peacocks are superior defensively and are far better on the glass (53.3% rebound rate compared to 48.5% for Iona) which will help them clean up mistakes and limit second chances. They also do a much better job at the charity stripe (74.2 FT% compared to Iona's 65.5% clip) which will be pivotal in a game with such a short spread between two teams that foul at an extremely high rate. St Peters have also played almost of their games on the road this season and they'll be excited to play at home. With the Peacocks riding a three-game winning streak and going 4-1 ATS in their last five lined games, take them with the points here.


Best bet: Over 153.5 (-110 at 888)

Attacking Purdue in the mid-range seems to be the best way to get after them given Edey’s size down low. The Boilermakers are allowing teams to shoot 47.1% from the field, and the Illini thrive in that area of the floor. Even without Shannon Jr., Illinois has managed to average 100 points in two games since his suspension. Overall, Purdue’s in a great position to show off its offensive prowess against this Illinois team, but the Illini will certainly help the Over cash.


Best bet: Bowling Green team total Under 65.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

The Falcons are 239th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and head on the road to face the Zips who are 82nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Bowling Green has played just two games in enemy territory this season, managing 62 points against Oakland and 54 points versus Southern Indiana. This is a Falcons offense that has poor ball movement and spacing while ranking just 273rd in offensive rebounding rate. Akron is coming off a pair of dominating defensive performances on the road, holding Northern Illinois to 51 points and St. Bonaventure to 62. They also rank outside the Top-300 schools in adjusted tempo and will be able to slow down the Falcons and keep them below their team total.


Best bet: Boise State -5.5 (-110 at bet365)

Entering this season, Boise State was expected to be the second-best team in the Mountain West Conference while the Spartans were ranked seventh out of 11 teams. While a few red-hot schools have jumped the Broncos they are still 64th in the latest KenPom ratings while the Spartans are 169th. The Spartans are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games while the Broncos have won six of their last seven contests with their only losses this season coming against Power 6 opponents. The Broncos are better on both ends of the floor, especially defensively where they are 45th in the country in adjusted def efficiency while SJSU ranks 200th. The only reason this spread is so low is because of the Spartans home-court advantage but considering that the Broncos are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six trips here it shouldn't be a problem.

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Where can I bet on college basketball?

You can bet on college basketball odds at every online sportsbook and casino. The best sites offer NCAA basketball point spreads, Over/Under totals, derivative bets, NCAAB futures and even prop plays as well. Check out our list of the best U.S. betting sites and sportsbooks in 2023 to find a location in your region.

Strategies for betting on college basketball

Betting on college basketball games can be exciting, but it's important to approach it with a strategic mindset. Here are some helpful tips to consider before laying down a wager:

Research teams and players: The college basketball landscape is always changing. Stay up to date on team rosters, NCAAB player injuries, and coaching changes to make the most informed decision possible.

Analyze team statistics: Review NCAAB team statistics such as points per game, field goal percentage, 3-point shooting, and defensive efficiency. Knowing is half the battle, especially when it comes to outwitting oddsmakers.

Study historical performance: Examine head-to-head matchups, recent game results, and trends between the teams. Some teams may have historical dominance over others. Just remember that not all trends are created equal. Try to rely on more recent data that takes into account the team's current personnel and playing style.

Home court advantage: Consider the impact of home-court advantage. Teams tend to perform better when playing in front of their home crowd, especially in places like Duke's jam-packed Cameron Indoor Stadium, where the frenzied fans are practically on top of the court.

Practice bankroll management: Set a budget for your betting activities and stick to it. Bankroll management is crucial for long-term success.

Shop for the best odds: Compare NCAAB odds from multiple sportsbooks to find the best value for your bets. Even a slight difference in odds can make a significant impact on your profits, particularly if you're placing larger wagers.

Play the long game: Betting on college basketball is a marathon, not a sprint. Don't get discouraged by short-term losses, and avoid chasing those losses with bigger bets.

AP Top 25 Rankings

Rank Team Record Points
1 Purdue Purdue  12-1 1,561
2 Kansas Kansas 12-1 1,497
3 Houston Houston 13-0 1,477
4 UConn UConn 11-2 1,302
5 Tennessee Tennessee 9-3 1,234
6 Kentucky Kentucky 10-2 1,196
7 UConn Marquette 11-3 1,137
8 North Carolina North Carolina 9-3 1,088
9 Illinois Illinois 10-2 980
10 Arizona Arizona 10-3 975
11 Oklahoma Oklahoma 12-1 898
12 BYU BYU 12-1 723
13 Colorado State Colorado State 12-1 694
14 Duke Duke 9-3 662
15 Memphis Memphis 11-2 631
16 Clemson Clemson 11-1 630
17 Tennessee Florida Atlantic 10-3 603
18 Baylor Baylor 10-2 589
19 Illinois James Madison 13-0 469
20 Texas Texas 10-2 374
21 Wisconsin Wisconsin 9-3 355
22 Mississippi Mississippi 13-0 329
23 Providence Providence 11-2 198
24 Tennessee Gonzaga 9-4 173
25 Auburn Auburn 10-2 168

Team rankings as of January 2, 2024. 

Biggest riser: Memphis moved up four spots to No. 15 thanks to a pair of wins over in-state rivals Vanderbilt and Austin Peay. The 11-2 Tigers are now firmly in first place in the AAC.

Biggest faller: Gonzaga plummeted 11 spots to No. 24 following an eye-opening 10-point loss to San Diego State on December 29. The Aztecs outscored the Bulldogs 46-37 in the second half to cruise to the win.

The Associated Press (AP) Top 25 rankings are determined by a panel of approximately 65 sportswriters and broadcasters from various media outlets across the U.S.

Each voter is asked to submit a list of their Top 25 college basketball teams. They rank these teams based on their assessment of their performance, including wins, losses, and overall team strength. The rankings are submitted on a weekly basis during the college basketball season.

Once all the individual ballots are submitted, the AP compiles the rankings by assigning points to each team based on their position in the voters' lists. A team that is ranked first on a ballot receives 25 points, a team ranked second receives 24 points, and so on. The points are then tallied to determine the overall rankings.

The AP Top 25 rankings are released every Monday at noon during the college basketball season. 

Player spotlight: Maxime Raynaud (Stanford)

Victoria Wembanyama may get most of the headlines, but he isn't the only French basketball star shaking things up in America. Stanford forward Maxime Raynaud has added a certain je ne sais quoi to the California hoops scene this season with his spectacular play for the surprisingly competitive Cardinal.

The 7-foot-1 forward has come into his own in his junior season and is averaging 14.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game - all career highs - while displaying a delightfully deft touch around the hoop. Raynaud's all around game was especially evident on New Year's Eve when he tallied 12 points and seven rebounds to help Stanford shock No. 4 Arizona 100-82 in a big-time Pac-12 grudge match. 

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Ryan Murphy Managing Editor at Covers
Managing Editor

Ryan Murphy began his love affair with sports journalism at the age of nine when he wrote his first article about his little league baseball team. He has since authored his own weekly column for Fox Sports and AskMen and has created successful campaigns for some of the biggest and most trusted brands in the world including Walt Disney, HBO, the WWE, the NHL, and the NFL.

“Murph,” as he’s known to friends, began his journey in sports betting in 2017, and enjoyed a highly rewarding tenure at Churchill Downs, where he oversaw the creation of the TwinSpires Edge and served as the publication’s first editor-in-chief. His nose for news and ability to find and nurture talent helped turn the site into a major player within the online gambling industry.

Although Ryan loves examining odds movement and breaking down matchups, he’s also a prolific creative writer whose critically acclaimed stories have been published in 21 books and have been featured on more than 170 radio stations and 40 newspapers. His latest book, My Life’s a Joke, is a laugh-out-loud memoir about the epic fails that thickened his skin and paved the way for a successful 15-year career as a touring stand-up comedian.

Ryan’s top piece of advice to sports bettors: “Bet with your head, not your heart. It pains me to be pragmatic, but blind loyalty has no place in sports wagering.”

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