The Nebraska Cornhuskers have the rare opportunity to become the first team this season to defeat the Iowa Hawkeyes twice and improve upon their Women’s March Madness odds by winning a Big Ten Tournament title.
Nebraska won its three tournament games with relative ease but now faces its stiffest test of the tourney when it meets Caitlin Clark and an Iowa program looking to avenge a late regular season away loss that likely cost them the Big Ten regular-season title.
Who will win Sunday’s Big Ten tourney final? Join me as I look closer at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks for Nebraska vs Iowa on Sunday, March 10.
Nebraska vs Iowa best odds
| (4) Nebraska | (2) Iowa | |
|---|---|---|
| +1,000 | Moneyline | -1,800 |
| +16 | Spread | -16 |
| Over 162.5 (-110) | Total | Under 162.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings on March 10, 2024.
Nebraska vs Iowa picks and predictions
This is it. The final Big Ten game of the 2023-2024 season pits a very good Nebraska Cornhuskers program against seemingly everyone's favorite team, the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Nebraska has played well this week, beating a decent Purdue team and a pesky Michigan State side. It committed 15 turnovers in the semifinals and still reached the final with a 10-point victory over a tough Maryland program.
Playing four games on four consecutive days won’t be much fun against the fresher, fast-playing, and high-scoring Hawkeyes. Nebraska boasts the second-best scoring defense, is second only to Iowa in overall rebounds, and allows a conference-best 29% shooting from beyond the arc this season.
The Lady Hawkeyes lost senior Molly Davis to injury in last week’s victory over Ohio State. That weakens them, making things a bit tricky against the conference's best stop unit and above-average conference offense.
The Davis injury hasn’t seemed to affect Iowa in the least: they scored 95 points against Penn State and beat them by 33. They followed that up with a 27-point victory over Michigan, but Nebraska is much better than both of those teams, plays excellent defense, can score the rock and Iowa will have a fight on its hands.
The Lady Hawkeyes still have enough firepower without Davis to win this game but covering 16 points won’t be easy. Clark has broken nearly every collegiate scoring record, and she’s lit up Nebraska for 31 on the road and 38 points at home in their previous two meetings. She’ll get her buckets and dimes, but the Hawkeyes' non-existent defense and without Davis doing the little things on offense will allow the Cornhuskers to cover the number.
Finally, while everyone talks about Iowa and Clark, Nebraska has had a 22-win season. It has the second-best scoring defense in the conference and can match the Hawkeyes' size on the block and the perimeter. As good as Iowa's offense is, its stop unit doesn’t stop anyone. The Cornhuskers averaged 72.5 in their two previous meetings with Iowa, and if they score 72 points today, and I believe they will, Nebraska will cover the spread.
My best bet: Nebraska +16 (-110 at DraftKings)
Caitlin Clark prop pick
Caitlin Clark plays her final Big Ten game today, and her scoring prop of 33.5 is the only prop available.
Today, she has a tough matchup against the best 3-point shooting defense in the conference. She cleared the prop number once in her two meetings with Nebraska but has failed to clear it in three of her last five.
Today’s matchup should be quite physical, and the Cornhuskers discovered in their last meeting she doesn't like that much when you get physical with Clark. She scored 31 that night after scoring 38 in their first meeting at Iowa, and I believe the Cornhuskers will deploy that same strategy, maybe even run a box-and-one a bit more than the last time out, as that seemed to work well in there when they defeated Iowa in February.
Caitlin Clark prop: Under 33.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Nebraska vs Iowa spread and Over/Under analysis
DraftKings is the only U.S. sportsbook hanging any type of line, but take heart. At some point, most major U.S. shops will hang some numbers for this contest, which will be like what DraftKings has on their board.
You read the best bet, so there’s no point in rehashing it. I also like the Under 162.5 (-110) point total, which is exploitable and too high for this tilt.
Their previous two meetings explain why the total is set at 162.5. Their first meeting ended with a 19-point Iowa home victory that ended in 165 points, and the second and most recent meeting ended in 161 points and a three-point home victory.
The difference between the two games was the Hawkeyes' bench. Iowa's pine riders contributed 23 points in its 19-point home win with Davis starting and just four in its loss at Nebraska. Davis only played two minutes with some sort of illness, and she isn’t playing Sunday. The Hawkeyes bench will be even weaker, and Iowa won’t clear 80 points.
The Hawkeyes don’t play defense, but this is a championship game, and the nerves will be flowing. Nebraska got off to a terrible start in its last matchup, and nerves could easily come into play for both teams.
This could and probably will become very physical as these are two teams with some size and big bodies down low who can score the basketball and snag caroms. I expect a hard-fought, low-scoring game ending Under 162.5 (-110) at DraftKings.
Nebraska vs Iowa betting trend to know
Nebraska is 22-10 straight up this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Nebraska vs. Iowa.
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Iowa vs Nebraska game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Sunday, March 10, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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