Coach K will coach his final home game and regular-season game for the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday night, very fittingly against the North Carolina Tar Heels. Duke has already secured the ACC regular-season championship, and is now looking to build on its seven-game winning streak ahead of the conference tournament.
North Carolina, currently on the tournament bubble, has won 10 of its last 12 but has lost the four games against its toughest opponents.
Continue reading for more free college basketball picks and predictions for North Carolina vs Duke on Saturday, March 5th.
North Carolina vs Duke odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Duke opened as 10.5-point favorites and after some expected ticket volume, has moved to -11.5. The total opened at a lofty mark of 154 and has since moved a touch down to 153.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
North Carolina vs Duke predictions
Predictions made on 3/4/2022 at 7:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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North Carolina vs Duke game info
• Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC
• Date: Saturday, March 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
North Carolina at Duke betting preview
Injuries
North Carolina: None.
Duke: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Duke has played 4-1-1 to the Over in its last six games with totals of 150 or more, whereas North Carolina has played 5-0 to the Over in its last five of the same range. Find more NCAA betting trends for North Carolina vs. Duke.
North Carolina vs Duke picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Saturday will mark the 257th time Duke and North Carolina will have faced off, and although the rivalry is already one of sports most storied ones, Saturday's affair will hold a particularly high amount of significance - the type of significance that has generated the most expensive basketball game ever, both at the collegiate and professional level.
It will be the last time Mike Krzyzewski will coach the Blue Devils on their home court as he puts the final touches on his legendary 42-season career. He will lead a team which currently ranks No. 4 in the country, possesses a 26-4 record on the year, and already has collected an ACC regular season championship before Saturday's game even tips.
The Blue Devils are winners of seven straight, and if they can keep the momentum going on Saturday and beyond, they have a chance to join the upper echelon of Coach K's illustrious collection of rosters.
Leading that group is five-star freshman and projected top NBA Draft pick Paolo Banchero (16.9 PPG, 7.8 RPG), a 6'10" freak of nature that combines hyper athleticism with smooth ball-handling and second-nature shot creation. Trevor Keels (12.3 PPG) and AJ Griffin (10.4 PPG) round out the flashy freshman trio while Wendell Moore (13.2, 5.5 APG) and Mark Williams (10.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG) bring a more veteran presence to the team.
That group has already put together a 20-point win over North Carolina earlier this season, and that game is part of a larger subset of games that has been worrisome for Tar Heels fans. North Carolina's four toughest tests this year have been against Purdue, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Duke. They have lost all four of those games and it hasn't been pretty either, losing just one by single digits and falling by an average of 18.8 points.
That's not to suggest that the Tar Heels lack top-end talent. Junior forward Armando Bacot has put together a stellar campaign that includes per-game averages of 16.4 points and 12.7 rebounds. His presence inside opens up things for the Tar Heels' trio of sharpshooters including the likes of Caleb Love (15.5 PPG, 38.4% 3P%), Brady Manek (14.2 PPG, 38.9% 3P%), and RJ Davis (13.3 PPG, 40.3% 3P%).
First-year head coach Hubert Davis has put together a hell of an offense in the wake of Roy Williams’ retirement, ranking 2nd in the ACC in scoring and 25th in the nation in KenPom offense. What has given North Carolina problems is their defense.
| Points | Field Goals | 3-pointers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue | 93 | 56% | 44% |
| Tennessee | 89 | 54% | 45% |
| Kentucky | 98 | 54% | 53% |
| Duke | 87 | 58% | 47% |
In their aforementioned four toughest tests, they allowed a whopping 91.8 points on average. They never once held any of those four teams to below 54% shooting or 44% from three.
And while yes, these games were against higher-end opponents, the marks the Tar Heels managed against them are hilariously worse than the lowest marks across the 358 teams in the nation (51% and 40%, respectively). There has not been a single collective bright spot in their defensive performances across those 240 minutes.
In that respect, Duke is the sixth-ranked team in KenPom offense, and during its current win streak, it has managed to score 72+ all but once, including 97 and 86-point showings its last two times out. Duke manages the 35th-best field goal percentage at the rim and North Carolina allows a mark above 60% that ranks 240th in the nation.
On the other end, North Carolina, as mentioned before, is extremely proficient from three — their 37.4% team mark ranks 30th in the nation. The problem is that the Tar Heels only lean on that shot 37.5% of the time in terms of volume (198th), and Duke is one of 31 teams in the nation to allow a 3-point clip below 30%.
Prediction: Duke -11.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Saturday night's number of 153.5 is admittedly high, but Duke has played 6-4-1 to the Over on totals of 150 or more and has gone 4-1-1 in the last six with marks that high. In that same environment, the Tar Heels have gone five straight to the Over. They've also gone 10-3 to the Over in their last 13 overall.
And as mentioned previously, Duke has been raining the points on as of late. As a result, it has played 6-2-1 to the Over in its last nine games. It has done this despite holding teams to relatively low marks, with opposing teams managing just 66 points on average during that time. It's easy to imagine that a more offensively capable team like North Carolina will be able to contribute more than the likes of Pitt (230rd in KenPom offense), Florida State (135th), or Boston College (174th).
Prediction: Over 153.5 (-110)
Best bet
There have been well over 100 games every Saturday for the last few months, and each were deserving of scrutiny and intense analysis. Saturday's matchup between Duke and North Carolina is not one of those times. The meaning behind the basketball being played once that ball has been tipped and the ensuing spectacle that results will be more than enough for anyone to engulf themselves into.
Quite frankly, Saturday is Coach K's day. To even try to suggest that there is a better bet than to back the legendary coach in his final game on his home court would be damn near close to treason. Some things are just bigger than sports, and we just happened to be graced with an example on March 5th.
Pick: Duke -11.5 (-110)
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