North Carolina vs Kentucky Odds, Picks and Predictions: Ingram Punishes Wildcats Perimeter

Saturday’s NCAA slate is a loaded one, and North Carolina’s clash with Kentucky should be one of the most entertaining matchups of the day. Our college basketball odds see the Tar Heels slightly favored in this Top-15 matchup.

The Tar Heels haven’t played since an 11-point defeat to UConn in the Jimmy V Classic back on December 5. They were outrebounded 43-33 on the night and simply couldn’t stop the Huskies from getting second-chance points. Armando Bacot also made just four of 12 shots and will hope to be more of an offensive factor on Saturday.

The young Wildcats allowed Pitt to make things tight in the second half last Saturday before pulling away for a 15-pt win. Aaron Bradshaw was a force in his second game, posting a double-double off the bench and blocking three shots. A step up in competition awaits him here, and it’ll be interesting to see how John Calipari manages his rotation.

Our college basketball picks and predictions for North Carolina vs Kentucky on December 16 take a look at a familiar player prop, as we hope to cash in yet again on a hot hand.  

North Carolina vs Kentucky best odds

North Carolina vs Kentucky picks and predictions

I previewed North Carolina’s last game with UConn. In that write-up, I gave out Harrison Ingram to hit multiple 3-pt baskets as my best bet. And I’m running it back against Kentucky — but for a few additional reasons. 

Against the Huskies, Ingram hit two from downtown in the first half, including the final shot before the buzzer. He ended up going 3-for-4 from beyond the arc, in a game that had a tempo similar to what is expected on Saturday.

But Ingram is likely to get more opportunities to shoot than he did against UConn. The Huskies entered that game allowing the 27th-fewest shots from downtown, and just 20 of North Carolina’s 63 shots from the floor came from outside the arc. 

They’ll find those outside opportunities much more frequently against Kentucky. The Wildcats rank 336th in college basketball in 3-pt rate defense, with more than 44% of their opponents’ attempts coming from range. 

They’ve also been fortunate that teams have missed some wide-open looks. UNC-Wilmington didn’t, going 11 of 31 from downtown as it went into Rupp Arena and upset the Wildcats a couple weeks ago. 

It was a similar story against Saint Joseph’s, who hit 15 of 37 from beyond the arc and took the Wildcats to overtime. The Hawks attempted nearly half their field goal attempts from downtown, as the Wildcats left them open far too often. Three different players hit multiple 3-pt on the night, with Erik Reynolds II going 6-of-12 from outside. 

That’s been one of the biggest issues for this young Kentucky team. The defensive rotation is now a bit trickier, as it looks to integrate Aaron Bradshaw back into the team. The freshman big man will be making his third appearance against North Carolina, and his first two games saw Kentucky leaving too many players open off switches and in transition.

Ingram is the best outside shooter on this North Carolina team, and this game is expected to be a bit of a track meet. The Wildcats will also have to find a way to slow down Armando Bacot on the glass, with North Carolina ranked 90th in offensive rebound rate. 

Kentucky’s allowed multiple players to hit two or more 3-pt in each of its last two games. I find it hard to believe that Ingram won’t repeat that unless he’s just off his game. He’s now made multiple 3-pt in four of his last six games, and I’m backing him to come through for us yet again. 

Ingram’s price of -125 at DraftKings is a terrific value, especially when the same play at Fanduel is priced at -152. It wouldn’t surprise me to once again see him cash for us before halftime.

My best bet: Harrison Ingram over 1.5 made threes (-125 at DraftKings)

North Carolina vs Kentucky same-game parlay

Harrison Ingram Over 1.5 made three

DJ Wagner 4+ assists

Tre Mitchell 4+ assists

Stepped Up boost available

+720 at DraftKings

We’re adding two plays to our best bet, giving us a strong same-game parlay at DraftKings.  

DJ Wagner is the straw that stirs Kentucky’s offense, and he had seven assists against Penn last weekend. He’s registered five or more assists in each of his last three games, not counting the game against Miami where he played just 10 minutes due to injury. Back Wagner to have four or more. 

The Tar Heels saw three players register five or more assists when they played UConn, so Wagner’s not the only threat in the assist game. Tre Mitchell has been outstanding passing the ball, and his vision from both the high and low post has him averaging 3.9 dimes per contest. He had seven of them against Miami in a game that should play at a similar pace and style as this one. So, we’ll take him to have four or more as well.

This SGP is +600 at DraftKings. But if you opt-in for their Stepped Up Parlay you can boost that number to +720!

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

North Carolina vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis

North Carolina opened as 1.0 favorites on Friday evening, and the line has picked up an additional half point heading into Saturday afternoon. The market is backing them to cover the -1.5 but the Covers Consensus is taking the points, with 60% of the picks coming in on Kentucky and the +1.5 line. 

Kentucky could have Ugonna Onyenso, who Calipari said is expected to be available barring setbacks. It gives the Wildcats another big body to throw at Bacot, as they’ve struggled against dominant big men this season. 

Both teams are very effective offensively, but it’s the offensive glass where this game could be determined. Kentucky ranks 280th in offensive rebound rate, and allowing the Tar Heels to get second chances while finding none of its own could be a mountain too steep to climb. 

Neither team has been great ATS this season, with UNC going 4-5 while Kentucky is 5-4. Kentucky has been the underdog just once this season, and covered the +7 against Kansas. North Carolina has gone 2-1 ATS as single-digit favorites, losing outright to Villanova.

The total of 165.5 quickly moved two points after opening at 163.5 and I expect it may move higher before tipoff. It’s the highest total of any North Carolina game this season, eclipsing the 159.0 total for Lehigh. The Under is 2-0 in UNC games with a total of more than 153 points this season.

For the Wildcats, it’s also their highest total, but they went Over 162.5 against Miami in a game that featured 168 points. I’m expecting a similar style of play here, and Miami had one of its worst 3-point shooting performances of the season. If North Carolina makes their shots from outside, this total may not be high enough. 

The Over is 7-3 in Kentucky’s games this season. In addition, its two games against Power 5 opponents have featured 168 and 173 points. 

North Carolina vs Kentucky betting trend to know

The Over is 23-11 in Kentucky’s last 34 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Kentucky.

North Carolina vs Kentucky game info

North Carolina vs Kentucky key injuries

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