North Carolina vs Louisville Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tar Heels Not Shaken by Absences

Two very disappointed ACC rivals will meet on Saturday afternoon as the North Carolina Tar Heels face off with the Louisville Cardinals in the Yum Center.

The Tar Heels started the season ranked No. 1 in the country, but have failed to meet expectations thus far. They are no longer ranked and sit at 11-6 overall and 3-3 in the ACC. The Cardinals have been one of the worst teams in Division I, let alone the power conference teams. They’re 2-15 overall and 0-6 in ACC play. Will North Carolina get a boost to their confidence on the road in Louisville? 

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for North Carolina vs. Louisville on January 14 to find out.

North Carolina vs Louisville best odds

North Carolina vs Louisville picks and predictions

After making the National Championship game last season, North Carolina was expected to be one of the best teams in the country, returning four of their five starters. However, they’ve struggled to live up to those expectations with a mediocre start to this season. They’re 1-3 against ranked opponents and went through a four-game losing streak in late November and early December.

The good news for the Tar Heels is they get a chance to gain some confidence in a road game against possibly the worst team in the major conferences. Louisville only has two wins on the season and finds itself ranked 339th out of 363 teams in the NET rankings. 

The bad news for the Tar Heels is that they may be without two key starters in Armando Bacot and Pete Nance. Bacot averages 17.6 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game. Nance averages 10.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.0 blocks per game. The 30th-ranked scoring offense and 31st-ranked rebounding team will be really missing these two studs. 

Louisville relies completely on El Ellis, who averages 17.5 points, 4.7 assists, and 1.2 steals in 35.7 minutes per game. It will be on Leaky Black and Caleb Love to make sure Ellis doesn’t single-handedly beat the Tar Heels here without two of their best players. They should be able to force Ellis into making some mistakes. 

Ellis averages 4.4 turnovers per game for a team that averages 16.6 turnovers per contest. UNC only averages 11.4 turnovers per game, which ranks 50th in the country. Even though the Tar Heels will likely be without much experience in the front court, there is not a much better opponent to have this problem against than Louisville.

The Cardinals are a terrible rebounding team and struggle to protect the rim. Even without Bacot and Nance, the Tar Heels will be able to find plenty of offense around Love and RJ Davis. Unless Carolina allows Ellis to completely dominate the game, the Tar Heels should still easily win and cover here on the road. 

My best bet: North Carolina -12.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

North Carolina vs Louisville spread analysis

Nothing screams disappointment like these two teams’ records against the spread. Both programs are 5-11-1 ATS on the season. However, they did take different paths to get to this record. Louisville started 1-11 ATS and is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five. UNC is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games.

The Tar Heels have been especially bad on the road this season, but this is the perfect get-right spot for them. Louisville is a putrid 3-7 ATS at home this season and 3-3 ATS as a home underdog. Only California has been a home underdog at least six times among the major conference programs. 

North Carolina loves to play fast, ranking 35th in possessions per game and 23rd in floor percentage. Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank 337th in floor percentage and 183rd in possessions per game. Louisville will try to slow the game down, but UNC has the ability and talent to control the pace of the game. 

The favorite has covered 10 of the last 12 meetings between these two programs. The Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games against a team with a losing home record. Louisville is 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games. These trends should continue Saturday with a big North Carolina win.

North Carolina vs Louisville Over/Under analysis

North Carolina likes to play fast and Louisville likes to play slow. Therefore, the Over has hit in 10 of the 17 Tar Heels games and the Under has hit in 10 of the 17 Cardinals games. UNC games average 153.7 points per game and Cards games average 138.0 points per contest.

This total sits right in between these averages at 145.5 points. Looking at the trends, the Over is 6-1 in the last seven UNC games overall and 15-7 in the last 22 Tar Heels games on the road. The Over has hit in four consecutive Louisville games and four consecutive Cards games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. 

North Carolina is the more talented team even without two of its starters, and it should be able to control the pace of play. I like the Tar Heels to reach the 80s relatively easily if not sneak into the 90s. This should lead to an Over here at this total.

North Carolina vs Louisville betting trend to know

The Tar Heels are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games. Find more College basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. North Carolina State.

North Carolina vs Louisville game info

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