The North Carolina Tar Heels will get a chance at a big resume-building win on the road on Sunday when they travel to Raleigh to face off with the interstate conference rival NC State Wolfpack.
North Carolina is 16-10 overall and 8-7 in ACC play, but has lost four of its past five games and is currently in the “Last Four In” in ESPN’s bracketology.
NC State finds themselves ranked for the first time this season at No. 23 in the most recent AP poll. The Wolfpack are 20-7 overall and 10-6 in ACC play.
Will the Tar Heels get a much-needed road win for their NCAA tournament resume? Read our college basketball betting picks below to find out.
North Carolina vs NC State best odds
North Carolina vs NC State picks and predictions
This will be the second time this season these two programs have faced off. In the first matchup, the North Carolina Tar Heels won at home 80-69. In that matchup, Armando Bacot had 23 points and 18 rebounds and UNC had 39 free throw attempts to NC State’s 12.
Both teams are very offensively focused with some defensive struggles. The Tar Heels rank 40th in the nation in scoring at 78.2 points per game, while the Wolfpack rank 36th at 78.7 ppg.
On the defensive end, UNC allows 72.5 points per game (261st), and NC State allows 69.2 points per (169th). However, in KenPom's rankings, UNC ranks 40th and NC State ranks 44th. The Tar Heels also rank better in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency at 34/52 compared to NC State’s 40/56.
Both teams have a fast tempo as well, as UNC ranks 77th in adjusted tempo and NC State ranks 70th. UNC ranks 38th in the country with 73.7 possessions per game and NC State ranks 82nd with 72.1. This could lead to several opportunities for both offenses to get some quick buckets.
NC State’s one strength on defense is its ability to keep its opponents from attempting 3-pointers. The Wolfpack only allow 18.2 3-point attempts per game, which ranks 34th in the country.
However, UNC thrives on getting points inside the 3-point line. The Tar Heels get 51.9% of their points from 2-pointers.
Both offenses should be able to use their strengths to exploit their opponent’s weaknesses. This is a very high total, but rightfully so given how fast-paced this game should be. I like both teams to threaten 80 points in a close game which is important for both programs.
My best bet: Over 151.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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North Carolina vs NC State spread analysis
In a high-scoring close game, free throws could play a vital role in who wins the game. UNC averages 23.2 free throw attempts per game, which ranks 15th nationally. NC State allows 19.2 free throw attempts (262nd) and commits 17.4 fouls per game (133rd).
UNC dominated the free throw attempts in the first matchup and will use its big men to try and dominate this category again in Raleigh. Bacot, RJ Davis, and Caleb Love combined for 31 free throw attempts in the first matchup and drew 27 total fouls from NC State.
The Tar Heels are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six Sunday games, while the Wolfpack are 2-5 ATS in their last seven Sunday games. NC State is 5-16-2 ATS in their last 23 home games against losing road teams and 11-30-3 ATS in their last 44 home games.
This game is going to come down to the wire and this is getting close to must-win time for UNC. I like the Tar Heels to continue their success at getting to the free throw line and getting buckets down low.
Give me the Tar Heels to pull off the tough road win and get their first Quad 1 win of the season.
North Carolina vs NC State Over/Under analysis
In the first matchup, UNC managed to score 80 points despite only shooting 37% from the floor. NC State allows their opponents to shoot 43.7% from the floor on the season. Also, the Wolfpack only made five 3-pointers despite averaging 8.6 made threes per game.
The Over is 7-3 in Tar Heels last 10 games against winning teams and 5-1 in the Wolfpack's last six against winning teams. It's also 5-1 in the Wolfpack's last six games following a straight-up loss.
These trends should continue Sunday in a high-scoring affair. Both teams play fast and can get buckets in multiple ways. Both defenses have weaknesses that the opposing offense can exploit.
There's no reason not to like the Over in this matchup.
North Carolina vs NC State betting trend to know
The Over is 3-1-1 in NC State's last five games following an ATS loss. Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. NC State.
North Carolina vs NC State game info
| Location: | PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC |
| Date: | Sunday, February 19, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
