North Carolina vs Notre Dame Odds, Picks and Predictions: UNC's ATS Woes Continue

The North Carolina Tar Heels face off against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in NCAA basketball action on Wednesday.

These are two of the worst teams in the country against the spread and have been massive disappointments. The Irish are near the bottom of the ACC standings and won't see postseason action while UNC is at least still projected to make the NCAA Tournament.

That disparity is reflected in the betting lines for today, with the Tar Heels coming in as 6.5-point road favorites. Here are my best free North Carolina vs. Notre Dame college basketball picks and predictions for February 22.

North Carolina vs Notre Dame best odds

North Carolina vs Notre Dame picks and predictions

Notre Dame has been the worst team to bet on among all Power 6 conference schools with an 8-19 ATS mark, while UNC is tied with LSU for second-worst at 8-18-1 ATS. That said, if you look at their most recent performances, the Irish have done a better job of beating the odds. 

The Irish lost 68-64 to Duke last Tuesday before coming up just two points short against ACC-leading Virginia on the weekend. They easily covered the spread as double-digit underdogs on the road in both contests and now they're catching 6.5 points at home against a North Carolina side that's just 2-7 SU (1-7-1 ATS) on the road. 

North Carolina is just 224th in the country with a 49.6 effective field goal percentage against Div 1 foes, and that number has dropped to 47.9% on the road.

Although the Tar Heels theoretically should perform better against a poor Irish defense, that might not be the case since they've shown a tendency to go ice-cold from mid-range and deep even when getting open looks. 

They also do a very poor job of pressuring opposing ball handlers and the Irish love to take their time in half-court sets, averaging 19.1 seconds per possession. Notre Dame's ability to convert at the line and slow the pace down to a crawl, has me leaning toward the home side with the points. 

My best bet: Notre Dame +6.5 (-107 at Pinnacle)

North Carolina vs Notre Dame spread analysis

The Tar Heels are just 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games and are coming off a 77-69 loss to NC State on the road. They're just ninth in the conference standings with an 8-8 record but are still at No. 48 in the latest NET rankings, and No. 44 according to adjusted efficiency margin at KenPom.

That's all significantly better than Notre Dame, who is 2-14 in ACC play, 195th in the NET rankings, and 171st according to KenPom. 

However, the Irish are coming off an extremely competitive game on the road against No. 6 Virginia. The Irish pulled ahead just after halftime and ended up losing by a final score of 57-55. 

The Irish have a very experienced starting lineup featuring four seniors. They also have four players averaging double digits in points, led by Nate Laszewski (14.7 points and 7.1 rebounds per game).

Notre Dame shoots the ball well and ranks second in the country in turnover rate, but does a poor job of attacking the rim and getting to the charity stripe. 

On defense, the Irish have struggled in every facet, and rank just 288th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also rank just 331st in rebound rate, which will be a problem against a Tar Heels side that is 31st in that category.

Big man Armando Bacot is the main reason for North Carolina's dominance on the glass and leads the ACC with 11.1 rpg while adding 17.3 ppg on 56.3% shooting. 

North Carolina vs Notre Dame Over/Under analysis

When these teams faced off in Chapel Hill on Jan. 7, the Tar Heels won 81-64 to cover the spread as 12-point faves with the Over 144.5 cashing by just the hook. 

We're seeing a slightly higher total for this rematch with the O/U opening at 148 before ticking down to 147.5. 

The Irish have been brutal defensively and are 293rd in the country with an opponent effective field goal percentage of 52.7%. 

Despite playing at an extremely slow pace, the Irish are surrendering 74.8 ppg to ACC opponents while letting them shoot a conference-high 47.8% from the floor.

They'll be hoping for more streaky play from UNC guards Caleb Love and R.J. Davis, who are combining to average 33 ppg but shoot just 40.2% from the floor and 32.2% from the arc. 

The Tar Heels haven't been consistent on defense either and allow a 50.5 EFG% on the road. The Irish could take advantage of that since they have an impressive 54 EFG% at home. 

North Carolina vs Notre Dame betting trend to know

The Under is 9-2 in North Carolina's last 11 games overall while going 5-1 in its last six contests on the road. Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Notre Dame.

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