North Carolina vs Notre Dame Picks and Predictions: Depth Pushes Tar Heels to Victory

Two ACC forces will go head to head on Wednesday night when the North Carolina Tar Heels (who are undefeated on the road) face off against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (undefeated at home). North Carolina will look to keep the ball rolling, fresh off of a pounding of Boston College, amidst a stretch where they've won seven of their last eight. Notre Dame, winners of three straight, are also looking to stay hot.

Continue reading for our free college basketball betting picks and predictions for North Carolina vs Notre Dame on Wednesday, January 5th for more.

North Carolina vs Notre Dame odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Notre Dame opened as 2-point underdogs and have seen some small movement against them, but have since settled back at +2 at the time of this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

North Carolina vs Notre Dame predictions

• Prediction: North Carolina -2 (-106)
• Prediction: Under 144.5 (-110)
• Best bet: North Carolina -2 (-106)

Predictions made on 1/5/2022 at 2:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

North Carolina vs Notre Dame game info

• Location: Purcell Pavilion, South Bend, IN
• Date: Wednesday, January 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

North Carolina at Notre Dame betting preview

Injuries

North Carolina: None.
Notre Dame: None.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Notre Dame is 3-9 against the spread this season, including 1-3 as an underdog. Notre Dame has played to the Under in four of its last six and North Carolina has played to the Under in six of its last eight. Find more NCAA betting trends for North Carolina vs. Notre Dame.

North Carolina vs Notre Dame picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

North Carolina's play thus far suggests it has a hard ceiling. That's not to imply the Tar Heels are a bad team, as their 31st ranking in KenPom efficiency ratings is more than respectable, and they have a home win against Michigan, who is right in their range at 27th. But in the affairs in which they've had to punch upwards, they've faltered. Their losses against Purdue (5th), Kentucky (9th), and Tennessee (14th) are shining examples of when they've simply been outmatched.

Nevertheless, the Tar Heels offense is the team's engine, scoring 79.5 points per contest (good for 37th in the nation). There is no singular read on the offense, however, as they have five players averaging double-digit points who all score in varying ways. Sophomore guards Caleb Love (15.6 PPG) and RJ Davis (13.3 PPG) both combine pure shooting ability (both better than 43% from three and 79% on free throws) with soft touches down the lane. The two are a large part of why North Carolina shoots 40% from three, a Top-10 mark in the nation.

Forwards Armando Bacot (15.3 PPG), Brady Manek (12.7 PPG), and Dawson Garcia (10.0 PPG) all stand 6-foot-9 or taller and weigh 230-plus pounds, but Manek and Garcia are also respectably proficient from outside. Their size contributes to their Top-10 mark in defensive rebounding. 

Notre Dame is not as varied. The Fighting Irish emphasize 3-point volume, which may be confusing given that they rank 80th in 3-point attempts. But Notre Dame also slows the pace down at just 68.5 possessions per game (292nd), so each three taken is slightly more impactful in terms of shot spread than for most teams. But limiting opportunities to score by shortening the game is a poor proposition when you are bound to lose the rebounding battle (34.1 rebounds per game to UNC's 40.1) and when you shoot less efficiently (44.2 FG% to UNC's 48.2%).

It's hard to argue against the more efficient and varied approach.

Prediction: North Carolina -2 (-106)

Over/Under analysis

Despite the offensive advantage North Carolina possesses, its recent success has been more about elevated defensive play. In the seven wins across the Tar Heels' last eight games, they've held teams to 65 or fewer points.

Notre Dame could realistically be held to that mark, seeing as they've averaged just 62.2 points in their five losses this season. But North Carolina isn't the only one with elevated defensive play as of late: Notre Dame has held teams to 64.4 points per game in their last five, which is a stretch that immediately followed their three-game losing streak when they allowed an average of 76 points.

Prediction: Under 144.5 (-110)

Best bet

North Carolina simply has the advantage across the board. Its offensive approach lends its hand to more efficient looks, and its multitude of capable scorers gives Notre Dame multiple problems to solve defensively. The Tar Heels' size advantage gives them both an edge in the paint and on the boards. And to top it off, Notre Dame's entire offensive philosophy of slowing the game down will play right into those advantages.

North Carolina's play has a clear ceiling it reaches and a floor it doesn't fall through. And that floor has demonstrably been above the quality of opponents that Notre Dame most closely resembles.

Pick: North Carolina -2 (-106)

Pages related to this topic