You can’t accuse the North Carolina Tar Heels of playing a soft schedule.
The 11th-ranked Tar Heels will play their third straight game against an opponent inside the Top 15 and try to avoid a third straight loss when they take on the seventh-ranked Oklahoma Sooners at the Jumpman Classic in Charlotte.
OU has ripped out of the gate with a 10-0 start, though this will be just the second ranked team they’ve had on their schedule. Perhaps that’s why they’re two-point underdogs in the college basketball odds.
Who do you like tonight at the Spectrum Center? Read below for my free college basketball picks and best bet for North Carolina vs. Oklahoma on Wednesday, December 20.
North Carolina vs Oklahoma best odds
North Carolina vs Oklahoma picks and predictions
A game after dropping an 87-76 decision to the fifth-ranked UConn Huskies, the North Carolina Tar Heels lost 87-83 to the 14th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats. A couple of glaring disadvantages cost them in a game that was theirs for the taking. UNC gave up a whopping 18 offensive rebounds, part of getting owned on the glass 43-32. That helped the Wildcats hoist up 15 more field goal attempts overall, which was crucial in a game decided by just four points.
Despite the setback, UNC is still a strong offensive group, putting up 84.9 points per game, sitting one spot outside the Top 25. We’ll see how the Tar Heels stack up against an Oklahoma Sooners defense that’s 15th in the nation, holding teams to a paltry 61.3 points per game.
The Sooners are one of the few that can keep up with UNC offensively, as they average 84.4 points per game, good for 29th in the country, on a blistering 51% from the field, a figure just outside the Top 10 in the NCAA.
OU is coming off an 81-47 demolition of Green Bay. Its average margin of victory this year is an impressive 22.1 points per game, but a look under the hood shows there’s a reason North Carolina is favored. Oklahoma’s only wins in single digits on the season came against tougher competition. It beat then 23rd-ranked USC 72-70 and topped Arkansas by nine points.
UNC also stays in attack mode all game, evidenced by its 41.6 points per game from two-point range. That’s a big reason why the Tar Heels are fourth in the nation, averaging just under 28 free throws per game, and 21.2 points from the stripe, the second-most in college hoops.
It’s also weird to say after 10 games, but they’re battle-tested. The ‘Heels are 22nd in KenPom’s strength of schedule metric, and OU will be their fifth Top-20 opponent this season.
Oklahoma may be a paper tiger and North Carolina is likely better than its record indicates thanks to a grueling schedule to open the year. UNC is correctly favored and I'm taking the Tar Heels to win by at least a trey.
My best bet: North Carolina -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
North Carolina vs Oklahoma same-game parlay
North Carolina -2.5
Javian McCollum Over 14.5 points
Over 154.5
No-sweat SGP available
Sooners guard Javian McCollum is coming off a nine-point effort in the blowout win over Green Bay. It’s just the second time he’s been held to single-digit scoring this season, and the first since the second game of the year — vs. Mississippi Valley State in another lopsided win.
Otherwise, McCollum has been a reliable offensive threat, second on the team in scoring at 14.9 points per game on 46% shooting. The Siena transfer has topped his 14.5-point total in six games this season. His play has elevated when going against tougher competition, posting a season-best 20 against Arkansas and 18 against USC. The Tar Heels are 284th in points allowed, setting up McCollum for a potentially big night.
We’ll wrap on the total for this game. Both schools have winning records with the Over this season, with the Tar Heels going 7-3-0, and Oklahoma going 6-4-0.
The most important stat here is the total against better competition. In North Carolina’s four previous games against ranked opponents, it's hit the Over. OU has done the same in its two most significant matchups. Expect a high-scoring matchup tonight.
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North Carolina vs Oklahoma spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread has been tight throughout, opening as low as one point. There has been some movement, though, where you could find UNC as a 2.5-point favorite.
Most books have settled in at the two-point range. Oklahoma is a crisp 8-2-0 against the spread, including a cover on all three of its neutral-site games.
North Carolina is just 4-6-0 ATS, including 2-3-0 ATS on a neutral court.
With two Top-30 scoring teams, the total hasn’t dipped below 153.5 points and has gone as high as 155 points.
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North Carolina vs Oklahoma betting trend to know
Oklahoma has won each of its last 13 games against non-conference opponents. Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Oklahoma.
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North Carolina vs Oklahoma game info
| Location: | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date: | Wednesday, December 20, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
North Carolina vs Oklahoma key injuries
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