North Texas will seek its first Quad-1 win of the season when traveling to take on Memphis at the FedExForum on Sunday afternoon.
The Mean Green stormed back from an 18-point deficit to beat UAB on Tuesday thanks to a buzzer-beater from Atin Wright. They’ll face a tougher test against the Tigers, who will want to avoid their second bad home loss of the season.
The oddsmakers are anticipating a low-scoring affair, but my North Texas vs Memphis predictions and college basketball picks explain why that won’t be the case on Sunday, January 5.
North Texas vs Memphis prediction
My best bet
Over 135.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Memphis Tigers rank 36th in adjusted offensive efficiency, thanks in large part to their 41.2% shooting from three-point range. They also thrive on getting to the free throw line, ranking 12th nationally with a 45.2% free throw rate. They play at one of the fastest paces in college basketball and have two outstanding scorers in PJ Haggerty and Tyrese Hunter.
Their opponent on Sunday has been shooting the ball much better of late. Over their last five games, the North Texas Mean Green have an eFG% of 56.3%, more than five percentage points above their season average.
As a result, they’re averaging almost nine points per 100 possessions more than they have on the campaign. And while they don’t hit at the rate Memphis does, the Mean Green ranks 76th nationally in three-point percentage.
And while North Texas plays defense at a high level, there are plenty of aspects to this game that make me feel this point total is far too low. Let’s start with that free throw rate we mentioned. It’s important because the Mean Green play very aggressive defense. It’s led to a lot of foul issues this year, with their opponents posting a 45% FT rate on the season.
But that defense has also forced plenty of turnovers. In fact, their turnover forced rate of 24.4% is a mark bested by only three teams and presents a problem for a Memphis team that ranks 314th in turnover rate on offense. The Tigers have still won games despite coughing up the ball so often, but it’s led to opponents getting plenty of easy points.
One area where North Texas struggles at the defensive end is allowing looks from downtown. The Mean Green allows one of the highest three-point rates in college hoops, but have gotten away with it due to facing teams that don’t hit a high rate. That won’t be the case against Memphis, who don’t shoot for volume but bury a lot of the attempts they take.
North Texas has been able to dictate the tempo against lesser teams, but it has also been involved in some higher-scoring affairs. In fact, oddsmakers seem to have trouble pinning a total down for the Mean Green. The Over has hit in four of their last five outings, including a 78-75 win over UAB that easily cleared the 139.5-point total.
I like Memphis to push the tempo here, getting to the line and hitting from deep with one of the best backcourts North Texas will face this season. The Tiger turnovers will lead to some cheap points at the other end, and we’ll see a game where both teams are likely to be close to, if not above, 70 points. Take the Over to hit for the seventh time in Memphis’ last eight home games.
North Texas vs Memphis same-game parlay
Over 135.5
PJ Haggerty Over 19.5 points
PJ Haggerty 2+ threes
PJ Haggerty has been an outstanding scorer for Memphis this season, scoring 22+ points in seven of his last nine games overall. But he performs better at home than on the road. He’s averaging 23.5 points per game in six home games this season, three more points than he’s managed on the road.
He’s also knocking down 1.8 attempts from downtown per game at the FedEx Forum, compared to less than one per game on the road. That’s because he’s shooting 55% from deep at home, 26 percentage points higher than he does elsewhere. Against a North Texas team that allows a high rate of outside shots, he’s great value to make a pair for the third time in five games.
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North Texas vs Memphis odds
North Texas vs Memphis live odds
North Texas vs Memphis opening odds
- Spread: North Texas +9.5 | Memphis -9.5
- Moneyline: North Texas +375 | Memphis -476
- Over/Under: Over 136 | Under 136
Odds courtesy of bet365
North Texas vs Memphis betting trend to know
North Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 25 of their last 32 games (+18.50 Units / 10% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for North Texas vs. Memphis.
How to watch North Texas vs Memphis
| Location: | FedExForum, Memphis, Tennesse |
| Date: | Sunday, 1-5-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
North Texas vs Memphis key injuries
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