Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is the site for the NIT semifinals, where the North Texas Mean Green and UC Irvine Anteaters collide for a spot in the tournament title game on Tuesday.
The Mean Green are trying to win their second NIT crown in three years and send head coach Ross Hodge off in style (he’s been hired by West Virginia). The Anteaters are making the most of a historic season for the program and just knocked off UAB — the same team that bounced UNT from the AAC Tournament.
Neither side will want to give an inch, which has me predicting a low-scoring grinder of a game with my North Texas vs. UC Irvine predictions and college basketball picks for April 1.
Who will win North Texas vs UC Irvine?
North Texas is a slim favorite, and most game models give the nod to the Mean Green. They know what it takes to win this tournament and showed tremendous poise with a victory at Oklahoma State, considering that quarterfinal game was supposed to be a home game but got bumped to Stillwater due to a scheduling conflict. North Texas wins.
North Texas vs UC Irvine prediction
My best bet: Under 128 (-110 at bet365)
This Over/Under total opened as high as 130 points and has since dropped to 128 points with initial action on the Under. Even with that adjustment, there’s still plenty of headroom for the Under, considering most game projections come in below that number. Forecasts range from 125 to as high as 137 combined points, but the bulk of those models side with a low-scoring finish in Indianapolis tonight.
Both teams are anchored in defense. The North Texas Mean Green play a plodding pace overall, ranked third slowest in the country in tempo. Not only does that methodical approach eat up a ton of clock and limit opponents’ possessions, but North Texas is a very sound defense that doesn’t give up anything easy.
While they did have a sloppy game against Oklahoma State (17 turnovers for 17 POTOV allowed), the Mean Green limit their miscues with the basketball (10.4 turnovers per game) for the most part and clean the defensive glass (97th defensive rebounding rate). That means very few second-chance buckets and points off turnovers. North Texas also patrols the perimeter, checking foes to 30.3% success from 3-point range.
The UC Irvine Anteaters will have to work for every bucket in this NIT semifinal, and you could say the same for the Mean Green. UC Irvine is no slouch defensively, entering Tuesday ranked 19th in defensive efficiency at KenPom.
The Anteaters have size inside, anchoring their interior defense on 7-foot center Bent Leuchten. UC Irvine is among the best defenses in the country at defending the rim and holds opponents to the second-lowest 2-point field goal percentage in the land (43.2%).
The big task for UC Irvine is getting a hand up on North Texas’ shooters. The Mean Green don’t shoot a lot of triples, but when they do, they knocked them down. They’re hitting at a 40.4% clip in the NIT so far. The Anteaters have done a great job defending the arc in the past two tournament games, checking UAB and Jacksonville State to a collective 9-for-41 from distance (22%).
UC Irvine stayed Under the closing totals in the first two NIT contests and would be 3-0 to the Under if not for the overtime period with UAB in the quarterfinals (just 138 points scored in regulation vs. 156.5-point O/U). North Texas has gone Under in its last two postseason outings, with plenty of room for the Under against closing totals of 136 and 136.5.
North Texas vs UC Irvine same-game parlay (SGP)
North Texas moneyline
Under 128.5
The Mean Green win a close, low-scoring semifinal and make it back to the NIT final for the second time in three seasons.
Many game models call for 125 points. These two defenses don’t allow for easy looks and don’t give any points off turnovers or second-chance looks.
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North Texas vs UC Irvine odds
North Texas vs UC Irvine live odds
North Texas vs UC Irvine opening odds
- Spread: North Texas -2 | UC Irvine +2
- Moneyline: North Texas -135 | UC Irvine +115
- Over/Under: Over 130 | Under 130
Odds courtesy of bet365.
North Texas vs UC Irvine betting trend to know
UC Irvine has gone Under the total in 21 of its last 36 games (+4.55 units/12% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for North Texas vs. UC Irvine.
How to watch North Texas vs UC Irvine
| Location | Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
North Texas vs UC Irvine key injuries
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