A bubble team whose NCAA Tournament dreams burst on Selection Sunday is now the team to beat in the NIT, as the top-ranked SMU Mustangs open tournament play Wednesday against the Northern Iowa Panthers.
The Mustangs are heavy 10.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds when this one tips off at 9:00 p.m. ET from Moody Coliseum in Dallas, TX.
My UNI vs SMU predictions and college basketball picks have the ACC-tested Mustangs getting through to the next round.
Who will win Northern Iowa vs SMU?
No disrespect to the Panthers, but SMU is ranked 47th overall at KenPom and sits inside the Top 40 in scoring in all of college basketball.
The Mustangs also make hay from long range, delivering at a healthy 37.6% clip. Meanwhile, UNI ranks just outside of KenPom’s Top 100 and has yet to face a ranked team.
Don't expect the Panthers to keep up on Wednesday.
Northern Iowa vs SMU prediction
My best bet: SMU -10.5 (-105 at bet365)
The SMU Mustangs’ omission from the dance stemmed from their inability to finish the year strong, alternating between wins and losses in the final 10 games of the year.
It culminated with a 57-54 loss to Clemson in the ACC Tournament, leaving their fate in the hands of the selection committee, and it didn’t turn up aces.
SMU’s inability to put up points in big games is what cost the program. In the Mustangs' final five losses of the season, they failed to crack the 70-point plateau in each. They weren’t a great bet either, going 4-5-1 against the spread.
The Northern Iowa Panthers stumbled into the NIT as well, dropping three of their final four — highlighted by a 64-63 loss to Valparaiso in their conference tournament opener.
Seventh in the Missouri Valley in scoring, points have been even harder to come by of late, as the Panthers have been held to 63 or fewer in their three losses. The level of play favors the team with the harder slate, and SMU put up points in one of the premier conferences, shooting 48.1% from the field and 37.6% from deep.
UNI is 181st in field goal shooting defense and an even more distant 293rd in defending the arc. Take the Mustangs to roll in Round 1.
Northern Iowa vs SMU same-game parlay (SGP)
SMU -10.5
Under 145.5
If we’re sticking to current trends, SMU should be able to keep the Panthers’ offense at bay Wednesday and keep this matchup low-scoring.
UNI has gone Under the total in four straight — even failing to crack through the 130-point plateau in any of those contests.
SMU has cashed the Under in five straight contests, with only one of those games topping Wednesday's O/U of 145.5.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Northern Iowa vs SMU odds
Northern Iowa vs SMU live odds
Northern Iowa vs SMU opening odds
- Spread: Northern Iowa +9.5 (-110) | SMU -9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Northern Iowa +425 | SMU -575
- Over/Under: Over 144 (-110) | Under 144 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Northern Iowa vs SMU betting trend to know
The Panthers have allowed 75 or fewer points in each of their last 15 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Northern Iowa vs. SMU.
How to watch Northern Iowa vs SMU
| Location | Moody Coliseum, University Park, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-19-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Northern Iowa vs SMU key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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