Coming off a loss against long-time rival North Carolina, the ninth-ranked Duke Blue Devils seek to get back on track when they host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Wednesday night.
Notre Dame is reeling, having lost six straight, with just three wins over its last 14. The last-placed team in the ACC, the Fighting Irish are distant 16.5-point road ‘dogs in the college basketball odds.
Duke has been playing stellar ball: Counting its loss to UNC, that’s just its second defeat in the last 13 games, and the Blue Devils have dominated this head-to-head of late.
Be sure to read my free Notre Dame vs. Duke college basketball picks, and get your best bets for February 7.
Notre Dame vs Duke best odds
Notre Dame vs Duke picks and predictions
It was easy to trace the flaws that led to Duke’s 93-84 loss to North Carolina.
One of the lowest-turnover teams in the nation, Duke's 11 giveaways were converted into 19 big points.
While the Blue Devils did shoot 50.7% from the field for the game, they hit just 5 of 19 from 3-point range. That 26.3% clip is a far cry from their usual 38.1% average from distance, which ranks 22nd in the college hoops.
The 93 points surrendered are the most they’ve given up this season, 13 more than their previous high of 80, which happened on two occasions. The Dookies usually average 68.4 points against, which ranks inside the Top 100.
From the No. 3 team in the country, they’ll get to gear down against the Fighting Irish, who have just seven wins all year, and sport a conference-worst 2-9 mark in ACC play.
Their latest was a 70-60 loss to the Pitt Panthers, a game where the Irish could only muster 39.2% shooting from the field, and, like Duke, a 5-for-19 performance from 3-point range.
That loss continued a low-scoring trend for ND: over the last nine games, excluding their 75-68 OT win over Georgia Tech, they’ve scored 61 points or less in the other eight. Not surprisingly, those were all losses.
For the year, the Irish are a back-page team in scoring. Their 61.9 points per game ranks a whopping 345th in the NCAA, and their field-goal shooting (40.1%) and long-range marksmanship (30.3%) both rank outside the Top 320 in the nation.
Duke has won three straight over the Irish and 10 of the previous 11, including last month’s 67-59 win.
Despite that moneyline success and a 7-3-0 mark against the spread, Notre Dame has covered in three of the last four matchups.
And even with the L’s piling up, Notre Dame has stayed competitive, with each of its last eight losses coming in at 12 points or less.
Duke bounces back for the win, but look for the Irish to stay inside 17 points on Wednesday.
My best bet: Notre Dame +16.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Notre Dame vs Duke same-game parlay
Notre Dame +16.5
Tyrese Proctor Over 11.5 points
Over 134
33% boost available
It can only go up from here for Duke guard Tyrese Proctor, who was held to just 1-for-6 shooting and two points in 26 minutes against North Carolina.
Such is the life when the 6-foot-5 sophomore was tasked with trying to contain the conference’s leading scorer, RJ Davis.
That broke a streak of five straight games scoring in double figures, with four of those topping his scoring line set for 11.5 against Notre Dame.
He‘s coming off an 0-fer performance against the Irish the last time these teams played in South Bend, missing all four of his shots in 22 minutes or work, but Proctor has been a more dependable scorer at Cameron, averaging 15 points per game in four ACC home games.
I like the breakout potential, with plus odds to boot.
I’m targeting the total to put the finishing touches on this three-leg SGP.
Despite their scoring struggles, the Irish have hit the Over in their last two games.
Duke has hit the Over in four of its last six games, but if you’re using the total set against ND of 134.5, the Blue Devils have crossed it six straight.
Throw in the fact that each of Duke’s last 15 home games has produced a combined scoring total of 136 or more points, and they should do the heavy lifting to ensure these teams top the number again.
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Notre Dame vs Duke spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread opened at 15.5 points, with most books settling in at 16.5, though some sites have had the number climb as high as 18.5.
Both teams are just average against the spread. Notre Dame is split down the middle at 11-11-0, while Duke is just 10-11-0 ATS.
The total has stayed consistent, with the line mostly sticking at 133.5 points, inching just a point higher so far.
Duke has seen the Over go 11-10-0 in its games so far, while the Irish have covered just seven times in 22 games.
Notre Dame vs Duke betting trend to know
The Under has hit in each of the last three head-to-head matchups. Find more college basketball betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Duke.
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Notre Dame vs Duke game info
| Location: | Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date: | Wednesday, February 7, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACCN |
Notre Dame vs Duke key injuries
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