A pair of struggling NCAA basketball teams face off in Tallahassee on Tuesday, with the Florida State Seminoles hosting the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
The Irish have lost three of their last four, while FSU has just three wins all season. Oddsmakers are expecting a close contest, with the Noles penned as 1-point home underdogs.
Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Notre Dame vs. Florida State on December 21.
Notre Dame vs Florida State best odds
Notre Dame vs Florida State picks and predictions
The Fighting Irish have been awful against the spread, but they're still 7-4 straight up. With such a short line, it won't take too much to cover as slim faves.
The Seminoles are just 3-9 SU, and those three victories came against tiny South Carolina Upstate, Mercer, and the 2-10 Louisville Cardinals. They also recently lost starting forward Cam'Ron Fletcher to a season-ending knee injury, and his 10.8 points and team-leading 7.5 rebounds per game will be sorely missed.
The Irish have been mediocre defensively, but they have a finely tuned offense that is 39th in the country in effective field goal percentage (54.9%) while ranking 11th in turnover rate.
They have a very experienced lineup and typically travel well, having gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. They also shoot a sizzling 80.5% from the charity stripe, which would be extremely valuable down the stretch in what is expected to be a close game.
My best bet: Notre Dame -1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Notre Dame vs Florida State spread analysis
The Fighting Irish are coming off back-to-back 15-point losses to Marquette and Georgia. They looked very flat against UGA on Sunday, shooting just 38.8% from two-point range and having a rebounding margin of minus-11.
They have now dropped four of their last six games and have been among the worst teams to bet on in the country, with a 2-9 ATS mark.
That said, Notre Dame can put up points, and big man Nate Laszewski leads the way with 15.4 points and 7.9 rebounds per game.
The Irish are 41st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency but rank just 221st in adjusted defensive efficiency.
FSU is led by a trio of guards featuring Darin Green Jr. (14.2 ppg), former five-star recruit Matthew Cleveland (13.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg), and Caleb Mills (12.2 ppg, 3.5 apg, 1.7 spg).
The Seminoles have struggled on both ends of the floor and rank 155th in adjusted efficiency on offense and defense.
Notre Dame vs Florida State Over/Under analysis
The total is tough to handicap because both teams play at completely opposite speeds.
The Irish struggle on defense and are efficient on offense, but they rank 351st in average length of possession. That has led to some lower-scoring contests, with the Under cashing in six of Notre Dame's last eight games.
The Seminoles are just 270th in the country in effective field goal percentage (47.5%), but they play at a fast pace and rank 34th in average length of offensive possession. That has led to Florida State ranking just 284th in the country in scoring defense (73.3 ppg allowed).
Notre Dame vs Florida State betting trend to know
The Fighting Irish are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games versus a team with a losing home record. Find more College basketball betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Florida State.
Notre Dame vs Florida State game info
| Location: | Donald L. Tucker Center, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, December 21, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACC Network |
