The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have won seven of their last eight games and now face a Florida State Seminoles squad that has lost eight of its last 10. Florida State has been shorthanded over the last few weeks, which is part of the reason the team has struggled.
Will the Seminoles find a way to pull off the home upset over the Fighting Irish? Keep reading our Notre Dame vs. Florida State college basketball picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 2 to find out.
Notre Dame vs Florida State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Seminoles were getting only 1.5 points at the open of this one, but they’re now 2-point underdogs at nearly every sportsbook. The total, meanwhile, is on the rise. The number opened at 138 and is now as high as 139.5 in some places.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Notre Dame vs Florida State predictions
Predictions made on 3/2/2022 at 1:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Notre Dame vs Florida State game info
• Location: Donald L. Tucker Center, Tallahassee, FL
• Date: Wednesday, March 2, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Notre Dame at Florida State betting preview
Injuries
Notre Dame: Elijah Taylor F (Out), Robby Carmody G (Out).
Florida State: Caleb Mills G (Questionable), Anthony Polite G (Out), Naheem McLeod C (Out), Malik Osborne F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Florida State is 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 home games against teams with winning road records. Find more NCAA betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Florida State .
Notre Dame vs Florida State picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Seminoles are 5-0 straight-up in the five games they’ve played against the Fighting Irish in Tallahassee, and they have to be feeling pretty good about themselves after earning a road win over the Virginia Cavaliers last game. Florida State won that game on a ridiculous buzzer-beater by Matthew Cleveland, but a win is a win, and it was badly needed for this Seminoles group. Florida State would have been in danger of being ineligible to make it to the NIT with a loss in that game, but the team now has something to play for the rest of the way.
It’s also not like Florida State is playing some type of juggernaut in this game. Sure, Notre Dame is a really solid basketball team, but the strength of the group is an offense that is 35th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency this season (all efficiency stats from KenPom.com). While that’s a really good mark, it’s not exactly elite, and Florida State is always a team that is tough to score on. The Seminoles are just 91st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency this year, but a lot of that is because the team hasn’t been healthy. Head coach Leonard Hamilton should have the team ready to go for this one though.
Florida State just needs to be really careful and make sure guys like Dane Goodwin and Nate Laszewski don’t have time to get their feet set on catch-and-shoot threes. Both players are absolutely lethal from behind the three-point line, and they are both responsible for creating space for Paul Atkinson Jr. and Blake Wesley. Those are the two best players on the Fighting Irish, but they won’t be all that effective if their teammates aren’t hitting shots.
Offensively, Cleveland should be able to play well for Florida State here. He had 20 points against Virginia’s tough defense and just has a ton of game. Jalen Warley could also be a key here, as the freshman has played well since seeing expanded minutes in recent weeks. He’s a really versatile guard with good size and great instincts.
Prediction: Florida State +2 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Over is 29-13 in Florida State home games over the last three seasons, and it’s also 6-2 in the games the Seminoles have played as underdogs this season. While it might be because of injuries, this Seminoles defense isn’t exactly what it once was, which means that high-scoring games are more possible than ever for Florida State. In fact, the team is coming off an Over in its meeting with Virginia, which says a lot. The Over is also 4-1 in the last five games that the Seminoles played, and it’s 5-0 in the Fighting Irish’s last five.
It should also be noted that these teams combined to score 156 points when they met in March last year. The Over happens to be 23-12 in Florida State’s ACC games since the start of last season, and it’s also 13-3 when the Seminoles are facing teams that make 8.0 or more threes per game (15-game minimum) over the last three seasons.
Prediction: Over 139 (-109)
Best bet
Over the last three seasons, Florida State is 6-0 against the spread when coming off a game in which the team had nine or fewer assists. The Seminoles won those games by an average of 18.5 points per game, which means that Hamilton will stress the importance of moving the basketball — especially against a mediocre Fighting Irish defense, which isn’t very good at scrambling and getting to open shooters.
Florida State is also 22-7 SU and 17-11-1 ATS when playing teams with winning percentages between 60.0% and 80.0% over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is just 3-6 against the spread when playing as a road favorite in that span.
Overall, not much separates these two basketball teams, so you are better off rolling with the home team getting points.
Pick: Florida State +2 (-110)
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