Ohio State vs Indiana Picks and Predictions: Home Hoosiers to Handle Rusty Buckeyes

Thursday night will feature a Big Ten showdown between the No. 13 Ohio State Buckeyes and the Indiana Hoosiers. Ohio State needed overtime to hold off Nebraska, a sure sign that they were shaking off the cobwebs of a 22-day pause in play. Indiana is coming off a road loss to Penn State, keeping in line with their undefeated play at home and their winless play away from Bloomington, Indiana.

Continue reading for our free college basketball betting picks and predictions for Ohio State vs Indiana on Thursday, January 6th for more.

Ohio State vs Indiana odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Indiana opened as 1-point favorites and have since moved to as high as 3.5-point favorites, where the line currently stands.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Ohio State vs Indiana predictions

• Prediction: Indiana -3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 139.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Indiana -3.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 1/6/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Ohio State vs Indiana game info

• Location: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
• Date: Thursday, January 6, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Fox Sports 1

Ohio State at Indiana betting preview

Injuries

Ohio State: Kyle Young F (Questionable).
Indiana: Trey Galloway G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Ohio State has lost three of its last four games ATS, whereas Indiana has won three of its last four. Find more NCAA betting trends for Ohio State vs. Indiana.

Ohio State vs Indiana picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Ohio State has been the most enigmatic team in the Big Ten thus far. The Buckeyes clamped up and allowed just a 38.5% field goal percentage against Duke and squashed the consistently impressive Wisconsin, who had beaten the likes of No. 3 Purdue and No. 12 Houston. They have also squandered away games against Xavier and Florida, who are respectable opponents in their own right but are clearly not on the level of the Blue Devils and Badgers.

EJ Liddell leads the way for Ohio State (19.6 PPG) and prior to conference play was sporting 55/40/67 shooting splits which is extremely impressive for a 6'7" 240-pound big man. His three-point shooting has expectedly come back down to earth to 33%, but he has made it count elsewhere by improving to 59% on two-point attempts and 73% from the line. 6'8" 245-pound sophomore forward Zed Key adds to Ohio State's interior presence and is seeing more consistent play as a contributor (10.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG) this year after just showing flashes last year.

Liddell and Key's presence inside forces attention and help down low which then opens up the rest of the court for their complement of deadly shooters. Justin Ahrens (41.3%), Meechie Johnson Jr. (36.4%), Jamari Wheeler (43.8%), Malaki Branham (44%), and Kyle Young (47.4%) are all incredibly capable three-point shooters and all average two or more attempts per game. Ahrens in particular averages 5.7 per game, which makes his shooting clip all that more impressive. Altogether, the Buckeyes rank 13th in the nation and second in the conference with their 39.7% three-point percentage.

But if Ohio State thinks they'll walk into Bloomington tonight and score at ease, they're in for a rude awakening. Indiana ranks 13th in KenPom defensive efficiency, and for good reason. They allow just a 35.4% field goal percentage, which includes the lowest two-point field goal percentage in the nation (39.1%) and a respectable 29.6% from three (58th).

Their own big man duo of Trayce Jackson-Davis (19.3 PPG, 8.2 RPG) and Race Thompson (10.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG) are equally formidable as Liddell and Key. Jackson-Davis may lack the three-point threat Liddell possesses but he makes up for it with more looks inside, outpacing Liddell in two-point attempts by nearly 35% on a per-game basis. Jackson-Davis, Thompson, and the rest of the Hoosiers are also just much more proficient at rebounding than the Buckeyes, ranking 37th in total rebounding and fifth in defensive rebounding to Ohio State's 153rd and 81st, respectively.

All things considered, possessing the frontcourt advantage and forcing Ohio State to win this game by making threes in a hostile environment is a recipe for success.

Prediction: Indiana -3.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Both teams don't play at any overly notable pace, with Indiana ranking just 101st in possessions per game and Ohio State ranking 225th. Despite this, Ohio State has played 8-3 to the Over and Indiana has played a respectable 4-5 to the Over in their last nine despite their defensive prowess.

Ohio State achieves this obviously through their shooting efficiency but also their tendency to get to the line in more tightly contested games. In their four games against ranked opponents, they went to the foul line 20+ times in three of those contests. The one contest they didn't reach that mark was when they had effectively put Wisconsin away with ten minutes still left in the second half. On Indiana's side, their physical play down low lends its hand to garnering free throw attempts, as they average 20.7 attempts on the entire season (43rd in the nation).

Prediction: Over 139.5 (-110)

Best bet

Indiana in a lot of ways is built to win a game like this. Their bigs match up amicably down low on both ends, with Trayce Jackson-Davis being a good foil to EJ Liddell. Jackson-Davis is a more traditional big that will challenge Liddell's interior defense, and on the other end, Liddell's inclination to occasionally shoot it from deep is a proposition Indiana has to surely be okay with.

If Ohio State can't find their footing down low against Indiana's nation-leading two-point field goal percentage, they'll have to resort to their three-point shooters. But Bloomington is no easy place to do that in, as Indiana has allowed just a 28% three-point percentage at home - a court where they've accumulated a flawless 9-0 record thus far.

All in all, tonight is a tough task for a Buckeyes team that has played once in the last 22 days — a game in which they needed overtime to beat a Nebraska team that is 0-4 in conference play thus far. 

Pick: Indiana -3.5 (-110)

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