Ohio State vs Purdue Odds, Picks and Predictions: Boilermakers Beat a Dead Horse

No. 3 Purdue (23-4) looks to get back on track after dropping three of its last four games. 

And they'll get a great chance to do so at home against a reeling Ohio State squad (11-15) that's lost a shocking seven straight and 12 of its last 13. 

Are the Boilermakers shot right now, or is this a perfect rebound spot against a lame-duck head coach and a struggling program?

Find out in our college basketball betting picks for Ohio State vs. Purdue on Sunday, February 19 below. 

Ohio State vs Purdue best odds

Ohio State vs Purdue picks and predictions

Purdue’s quest for a 25th Big Ten Championship looked all good just a few weeks ago. Fast forward to mid-February and the No. 3 team in the country has surprisingly lost three of its last four games. 

When did the recent slide start? First was a 79-74 defeat in Indiana on February 4. Following a rebound win at home over Iowa, the Boilermakers then lost twice on the road — 64-58 at Northwestern, and most recently 68-54 at Maryland. 

All four of their losses have come in conference play, although at 12-4, they are still ahead of second-place Northwestern (10-5) and are well-positioned to end out on top.

What exactly has gone wrong? Matt Painter’s team has struggled to control the flow of the game, letting the pace slip away from them when on the road. Secondary and tertiary scoring options outside of star big man Zach Edey (22.0 points, 12.8 rebounds per game) have been difficult to come by, causing the team to struggle to find a groove offensively. 

Over in Columbus, the fanbase’s pleadings to dismiss head coach Chris Holtmann have turned to a deafening roar. Ohio State Buckeyes fans aren’t the only group displeased with their team's performance — backers at the betting window have grounds for irritation as OSU has been one of the least-profitable teams in the betting market this season with a disgusting 8-18 ATS record.

A lot has happened since the Buckeyes played the Boilermakers close in a 71-69 Purdue win in Columbus back on January 5. Ohio State looked great in that contest, leading by as many as 12 points in the first half before ultimately succumbing in the final minute to a Boilermakers squad that had been defeated just once.

At that point in the season, the Buckeyes held a 10-3 record and were ranked just within the AP Poll Top 25, looking like a difficult out in conference play. Fast forward a month and a half later to the rematch and the program is now in a state of turmoil after the team has dropped 12 of its last 13 games. 

One thing to monitor for this matchup is the health of OSU center Zed Key, who can be considered questionable for this matchup. He left the Iowa game after playing just 13 minutes and was experiencing visible discomfort on the court. Even if he goes on Sunday, it’s fair to question what his health will be, especially when battling the goliath that is Edey in the post. 

Purdue holds a 59-27 edge at West Lafayette in the all-time series. The Boilermakers have been lights out at home this season, going 12-1 straight up while covering the spread in four of its last five. This is simply a different team at home, as can be the case in college basketball. 

This is a great bounceback spot for one of the best teams in the country. 

My best bet: Purdue -12.5 (-105 at WynnBET)

Ohio State vs Purdue spread analysis

The spread is currently set at -12.5 in favor of Purdue at most sportsbooks.

Despite being one of the better teams in the country for the entire season up until the last four games, the Boilermakers haven’t outproduced their gargantuan expectations. Purdue is just 11-14-2 ATS this season.

That may not matter against an Ohio State team that appears determined to burn any of its backers’ money in 2023. The Buckeyes are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games against winning teams and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage higher than .600.

They have been especially poor on the road, going just 0-7 ATS in their last seven tries. On the season, the Buckeyes are also just 1-8 SU on the road. 

Remember that 1-12 SU record in their last 13 games that I mentioned earlier? The Buckeyes are also 1-12 ATS over that span. It’s time for Holtmann to go. 

This Purdue team will be fired up at home to get over the hump after its recent losing streak. The Boilermakers get the perfect opponent to take out all of their frustrations on, as the Buckeyes are in complete and utter freefall. 

Ohio State vs Purdue Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 140.5 before quickly being bet down. Currently, the line resides between 138.5 and 139.5 depending on the book.

Ohio State is 14-12 to the Over this season. The Buckeyes check in at 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom) but 109th in adjusted defensive efficiency, so it’s clear where this team’s strength lies — on offense. 

Purdue is elite on offense, ranking eight in adjusted offensive efficiency and scoring 73.2 ppg despite checking in at just 329th in adjusted tempo. They rank 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Ohio State likes to force the ball inside offensively, ranking 28th nationally in 2-point attempts per game (41.5). Purdue isn’t elite in defending the paint, ranking 138th in near-proximity defense, per Haslametrics. 

Purdue thrives within the arc offensively as well, ranking 47th in 2-point field goal shooting (54.5%). This is an area where Ohio State struggles, as the Buckeyes rank 139th in near-proximity defense and 207th in mid-range defense (Haslametrics) 

The pace will be pretty slow in this matchup and I anticipate Purdue trying to slow things down at home so as not to let Ohio State’s offense find a groove. For as bad as the Buckeyes have been lately, they still grade out as close to a Top-25 offense and have plenty of talent. 

I lean toward the Under due to what I project as a slow-paced game. 

Ohio State vs Purdue betting trend to know

Ohio State is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Ohio State vs. Purdue.

Ohio State vs Purdue game info

Ohio State vs Purdue key injuries

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