The Ohio State Buckeyes face the USC Trojans on the hardcourt for the first time as conference mates tonight at the Galen Center at 10:30 p.m. ET.
The total has dropped from 153.5 at open to 151.5 as of the time of this writing.
See why my Ohio State vs. USC predictions are buying the dip and grabbing the Over with my college basketball picks on Wednesday, February 26.
Ohio State vs USC prediction
My best bet
Over 151.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The USC Trojans have been a money train to the Over, going 20-7 O/U in Eric Musselman’s first year in Southern California. I’m going right back to the well as they host the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The Trojans average 76.7 points per game led by Desmond Claude (16.2 PPG) and Wesley Yates III (13.4 PPG). They like to push the pace to fully utilize their offensive weaponry, ranking 98th in adjusted tempo in February (per BartTorvik).
In that period, the Trojans rank 36th in adjusted offensive efficiency but just 135th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The defense has recently collapsed against Rutgers (85-95), Maryland (71-88), and Purdue (72-90).
Ohio State is in a similar boat, ranking much higher on the offensive end (55th) than the defensive end (91st) this month. The difference isn’t as stark as it is with USC, but it's still noticeable.
Head coach Jake Diebler stated his team was dealing with the fallout of the flu over the weekend. Center Aaron Bradshaw missed the UCLA game but is considered questionable while second-leading scorer John Mobley Jr. (13.0 PPG) should be closer to full health after being visibly affected last week (12 points on 4-for-18 shooting across two games).
The Trojans are 12-2 O/U in their last 14 conference games and 5-2 O/U in their last seven home games. They haven’t shown any signs of deviating from their tendency to go Over the total, so I’m betting on another one coming home until given a good reason to think otherwise.
Ohio State vs USC same-game parlay (SGP)
Ohio State +1
Over 151.5
Ohio State has been the better team overall this season and is in a better situational spot, so I’m willing to overlook the homecourt advantage.
The Buckeyes rank 33rd in KenPom and 36th in Haslametrics, whereas the Trojans are 60th and 54th, respectively. There’s a reason the Buckeyes are considered to be on the bubble (in the field on 56 of 116 bracket projections according to Bracket Matrix) whereas the Trojans aren’t expected to go dancing.
Ohio State had an early tip on Sunday (12:45 pm) and stayed in LA and get some much-needed rest. USC tipped off in Rutgers a few hours later, arriving home at 3:00 am.
Musselman publicly bemoaned his team’s traveling circumstances and specifically mentioned he’s worried about how it will affect his team’s performance against Ohio State. It came across as someone already making excuses for what was about to happen, which is far from a positive sign.
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Ohio State vs USC odds
Ohio State vs USC live odds
Ohio State vs USC opening odds
- Spread: Ohio State +1.5 (-110) | USC -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Ohio State +100 | USC -120
- Over/Under: Over 153 (-110) | Under 153 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Ohio State vs USC betting trend to know
USC is 12-2 O/U in its last 14 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Ohio State vs. USC.
How to watch Ohio State vs USC
| Location | Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-26-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Big Ten Network |
Ohio State vs USC key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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