Saturday's Big 12 matchup between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the No. 1 Baylor Bears will feature two teams trying to bounce back from losses against Texas Tech. The previously undefeated Bears will look to bounce back from their first loss since last March, while the Cowboys will look to stay above .500 amidst the toughest stretch on their schedule.
Continue reading for our free college basketball picks and predictions for Oklahoma State vs. Baylor on Saturday, January 15th for more.
Oklahoma State vs Baylor odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Baylor opened as 14.5-point favorites and have moved down to 14 since. The total opened at 142.5 and has since moved a point down to 141.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Oklahoma State vs Baylor predictions
Predictions made on 1/15/2022 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Oklahoma State vs Baylor game info
• Location: Ferrell Center, Waco, TX
• Date: Saturday, January 15, 2022
• Tip-off: 5:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Oklahoma State at Baylor betting preview
Injuries
Oklahoma State: None.
Baylor: Jeremy Sochan F (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Oklahoma State has failed to cover the spread in all but one of its last 10 games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oklahoma State vs. Baylor.
Oklahoma State vs Baylor picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
On Tuesday, Baylor dropped its first game since March of last year and its first home game since March 2020. The game wasn't flukey either, with Texas Tech shooting worse from three, going to the line less, and getting outrebounded. Baylor, to put it simply, was just beat.
The Bears will look to amend that loss with a Saturday matchup against the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The matchup is certainly favorable, as the Cowboys’ offensive capabilities are nothing to be afraid of. They rank 257th in field goal percentage at the rim (57.3%), 209th on midrange jumpers (23.3%), 320th on three-pointers (31.2%), and 306th in effective field goal percentage in transition (49.6%).
Baylor has won by an average margin of 29.9 points against teams that rank at or below Oklahoma State's level (156th in KenPom offensive efficiency), allowing just an average of 58.9 points per game in those contests. This is a team that held the seventh-ranked offense in Villanova to 36 points.
On offense, leading scorer James Akinjo (14.6 PPG) will look to bounce back from a poor outing against Texas Tech (5/14, 1/8 from three). His 2.2 steals per game also play a large part in Baylor's "No Middle" defensive philosophy, which generates the 12th-most steals per game in the nation, and doesn't bode well for an Oklahoma State team that commits the 22nd-most turnovers.
To say there is very little margin for error for the Cowboys on Saturday would be underselling it. They don't have the offensive capabilities to challenge Baylor's defensive prowess and although their defense is respectable, it ultimately failed to hold higher-end units that rank similarly to Baylor (4th in KenPom offense) such as Kansas (5th) and Houston (6th), both of whom were able to eclipse 70 points away from home against this Cowboys defense.
Prediction: Baylor -14 (-115)
Over/Under analysis
If Oklahoma State is going to slow down Baylor, it's going to come from its elite ability to defend at the rim. The Cowboys' 50.6% field goal percentage allowed there is the 19th-lowest mark in all of college basketball. The stylistic problem, however, is that Baylor rarely goes there to generate offense.
Baylor takes just a staggering 29.0% of shots at the rim, which is 14th-lowest in the nation and the lowest of any Power 6 school. The Bears' top three scorers much prefer to find shots elsewhere, between Akinjo (24.7% of shots taken at the rim), Cryer (16.8%), and Flagler (11.3%).
| Player | % of shots at rim | % 2pt jumper | % 3pt jumper |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Akinjo | 24.7 | 40.5 | 34.7 |
| LJ Cryer | 16.8 | 24.4 | 58.8 |
| Adam Flagler | 11.3 | 31.8 | 57.0 |
This is also a Baylor team that has played to the Over in 5-1-1 in its last seven, and that should continue on Saturday
Prediction: Over 141.5 (-108)
Best bet
The last time Baylor lost, it went on to win six straight by an average of 17 points per game during March Madness to take home the national championship. This is, by all means, a team that knows how to win and has done it on a very prolific level as of late.
Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is not the type of team to go out and impress on the road. It is 1-2 in true road games this year, with its lone win coming in overtime against Oral Roberts. The Cowboys are also just 5-10 against the spread this year, which includes their current stretch of failing to cover in all but one of their last ten games.
This is a huge get right spot for the Bears before going on the road next week for two games, expect them to use it appropriately.
Pick: Baylor -14 (-115)
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