Oklahoma vs Kansas State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wildcats Claw Back at Sooners

The Oklahoma Sooners will look to get back to .500 on the season as they visit the Kansas State Wildcats in a Big 12 showdown on Wednesday night.

No. 11 Kansas State (22-7) has won three straight as they try to finish the regular season strong ahead of an assured NCAA Tournament bid. Oklahoma (14-15) is at the bottom of the Big 12 standings, but is coming off a 61-50 win on the road over the Iowa State Cyclones.

The Wildcats are the better team, but they’ll have to be wary of the Sooners, who have been playing better in recent weeks. We’ll break down how this one might play out in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Oklahoma vs. Kansas State on Wednesday, March 1.

Oklahoma vs Kansas State best odds

Oklahoma vs Kansas State picks and predictions

Oklahoma is a far better team than their disappointing record suggests. The Big 12 schedule has taken its toll on the Sooners, who are just 4-12 in the toughest conference in the country. But they’ve still been able to score some impressive wins, such as the recent victory over Iowa State. 

The Sooners also hold a win over Kansas State this year. The two teams last met on Feb. 14, when Oklahoma walked away with a 79-65 victory. Senior guard Grant Sherfield scored 22 points to lead the Sooners, who pulled away from the Wildcats in the second half.

Oklahoma looks solid in the advanced metrics as well. KenPom ranks the Sooners as the 52nd-best team in the country, similar to likely NCAA Tournament teams like the Pittsburgh Panthers and the Northwestern Wildcats. Oklahoma’s record will keep them out of the March Madness conversation, but even the dregs of the Big 12 can play at a high level.

That said, there’s still a wide gulf between Oklahoma and Kansas State. The Wildcats are currently projected to earn a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and have won three straight heading into tonight’s game. 

Kansas State has built its resume on the strength of its defense. While the Wildcats like to run, they still hold opponents to just 68 ppg. They are allowing just .928 points per possession, ranking as one of the 25 most efficient defenses in the country. That’s an especially impressive number considering the strength of their Big 12 competition. Kansas State also holds opponents to just 29.1% shooting from 3-point range, a Top-10 figure in the nation.

Oklahoma’s offense is unlikely to be able to find much success against the Wildcats. The Sooners average just 68 ppg, and aren’t particularly efficient even when considering their reliance on slower halfcourt offensive sets. 

So how did they find success in the first meeting against the Wildcats? Oklahoma shot an excellent 11-for-23 from 3-point range, while Kansas State went just 4-for-20 from beyond the arc. 

The Sooners would need another unlikely performance like that one to pull off a second upset against the Wildcats. Kansas State is a significantly better team than Oklahoma, and has gone 15-1 at home this season. 

Regardless of the result of the first game, the Wildcats should be able to win tonight’s matchup going away. I’m taking Kansas State and laying the points. 

My best bet: Kansas State -7.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Oklahoma vs Kansas State spread analysis

Kansas State opened tonight’s game as a 6.5-point favorite. Money has been coming in on the Wildcats, and as of noon on Wednesday, the consensus line has moved to Kansas State -7.5. 

The Wildcats have been a winner for bettors this year, going 19-10 ATS on the season. Oklahoma has been mediocre against the number, putting up a 13-15-1 ATS record this year.

Kansas State has played well over the past two weeks. The Wildcats have not only won three straight, but they’ve covered on all three occasions. That includes impressive home victories over Iowa State (61-55) and the Baylor Bears (75-65). 

Those are far more imposing opponents than the Sooners. Oklahoma may have overperformed against Kansas State in their last meeting, but the Sooners have only covered in three of their past eight games, and have only won twice in that span. In other words, it’s not as though Oklahoma is consistently exceeding expectations against their Big 12 opponents.

It’s understandable if Oklahoma’s impressive win in the last meeting gives you some pause, but Kansas State is simply the much better team here. I’m taking the Wildcats to cover at home. 

Oklahoma vs Kansas State Over/Under analysis

The total on tonight’s game opened at 140.5. There hasn’t been much movement, but most books have budged it slightly to 141.

Oklahoma is a slow-paced team that has played to an average score of just 136 this season. However, the Sooners have been pushed into some higher-scoring games as of late, with the Over going 6-2-1 in their last nine overall. 

Interestingly, Kansas State — generally the higher-scoring team in this matchup — is riding the opposite trend. The Wildcats have played to the Under in six of their last seven games, and have only hit a total above 140 twice in that span.

Notably, the one Over did come in the first meeting with Oklahoma. As we’ve talked about already, the Sooners were unusually successful from three-point range in that game, producing 79 points — the largest regulation output for them in their last eight games. 

I don’t expect Oklahoma to repeat that performance. The Kansas State defense has typically held opponents in check, and the Sooners aren’t likely to be red-hot from deep yet again. While the trends are all over the place on this market, I’m expecting this game to be played in the 60s, which means the Under is the play tonight.

Oklahoma vs Kansas State betting trend to know

Kansas State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oklahoma vs. Kansas State.

Oklahoma vs Kansas State game info

Oklahoma vs Kansas State key injuries

Pages related to this topic