In what could be the most exciting matchup of the first round of the College Basketball Crown, Oregon State and UCF’s high-powered offenses meet in a game that’s going to feature two of the worst defenses in college basketball.
While neither of these teams had particularly impressive seasons, their offenses came to play every night and should lead to one heck of a fun game if you like scoring. My Oregon State vs. UCF predictions and college basketball picks for Tuesday, April 1 expect this to be a game short on stops.
Who will win Oregon State vs UCF?
This should be a close game with the way both these teams take an optional approach to defense while relying heavily on their offenses to make a difference. Even with both teams dealing with losses to the transfer portal, they have talented guards to lean on.
The Central Florida Knights are a 5-point favorite because they have a slightly better defense, which should ultimately make the difference. I have the Knights winning 85-81, with the Beavers covering.
Oregon State vs UCF prediction
My best bet: Over 160 (-110 at bet365)
You can’t blame either of these teams’ offenses for them not qualifying for the NCAA Tournament. They were among the best in their respective conferences while their defenses were about as bad as it gets.
That’s made them both into trustworthy Over bets this season, with the Oregon State Beavers having the seventh-best Over rate in the country (71%). Since December 23, the Beavers are 19-2 betting the Over with the two times they fell short coming against Saint Mary’s and UC San Diego, two teams that qualified for March Madness and rank Top 35 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
UCF sits just 109th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 345th in points allowed per game (80.1) while ranking 354th in 2-pointers allowed per game (21.0). Although without Michael Rataj, Oregon State can lean on Nate Kingz and Liutauras Lelevicius to get to the rim while keeping the defense honest with their outside ability as both are shooting better than 38%.
Head coach Wayne Tinkle had leaned heavily on the Beavers’ inside ability with Rataj and big man Parsa Fallah, who is also in the portal. Still, Kingz, Lelevicius, Damarco Minor, and Josiah Lake II are a dangerous foursome of guards that the Knights should struggle with. Luckily for UCF, they have the offense to keep up.
While star guard Keyshawn Hall is in the portal, Darius Johnson and Jordan Ivy-Curry can make up the difference as they averaged a combined 29.6 PPG. Both can be lethal shooters, with Johnson hitting 41.1% of his threes and Ivy-Curry averaging two makes per game.
Oregon State’s backcourt should struggle with Minor being one of the most undersized lead guards in the country, and the Beavers’ ranking outside the Top 220 in 3-pointers allowed per game (7.9) and 3-point percentage allowed (34.5%).
These teams match up poorly defensively with each other, on top of both tending to try to win shootouts rather than play defense, making this a perfect game to bet the Over.
Oregon State vs UCF same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 160
Both teams to score 35+ 1H points
Oregon State +5
With neither program very good defensively, and both having tons of scoring talent, there’s not an obvious better program here. While UCF’s slightly better defense could be the difference in a win, it doesn’t look five points better than the Beavers on paper.
Although lacking size, Oregon State’s likely to use a heavy-guard approach which should gas the Knights’ lineup. UCF likely won’t be able to contain Kingz, Lelevicius, and Minor for 40 minutes. They should be able to keep the Beavers in this late.
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Oregon State vs UCF odds
Oregon State vs UCF live odds
Oregon State vs UCF opening odds
- Spread: Oregon State +5 | UCF -5
- Moneyline: Oregon State +185 | UCF -225
- Over/Under: Over 160 | Under 160
Odds courtesy of bet365
Oregon State vs UCF betting trend to know
Oregon State has hit the game total Over in 19 of its last 21 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oregon State vs. UCF.
How to watch Oregon State vs UCF
| Location | MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Oregon State vs UCF key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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