The No. 3 Arizona Wildcats host the Oregon Ducks Saturday night in Pac-12 action at the McKale Center.
The Ducks have had the Wildcats’ number, winning seven straight games in this series. Saturday’s game will be a challenge to keep that streak going, as Arizona is a perfect 14-0 at home this season.
Will the Wildcats be able to change the tune of this series in the first meeting with the Ducks in the Tommy Lloyd era?
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the Oregon Ducks and Arizona Wildcats on February 19 to find out.
Oregon vs Arizona odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Arizona is expected to win this game comfortably at home. The Wildcats opened -17 at one book, but the line has settled to -13 at current. A lot of points are expected. The total opened 151.5 and resides at 150.5 across most books as of Saturday morning.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Oregon vs Arizona predictions
Predictions made on 2/19/2022 at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Oregon vs Arizona game info
• Location: McKale Center, Tucson, AZ
• Date: Saturday, February 19, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Oregon at Arizona betting preview
Injuries
Oregon: None.
Arizona: Kim Aiken Jr. F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Ducks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon vs. Arizona.
Oregon vs Arizona picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The narrative around the Oregon basketball program is that Dana Altman is one of the best coaches in America and he always has his team ready to play come conference tournament time. Well, the time to turn things around is now, and the Ducks are faltering at just the wrong time.
Barring yet another miraculous run to end the season — as seems to be commonplace in Eugene — the Ducks’ NCAA Tournament hopes were likely extinguished after Thursday’s embarrassing 81-57 loss to Arizona State in Tempe. It was yet another disappointing loss for the Ducks after dropping 78-64 to Cal the previous week.
For a team that was supposed to be in peak form by late February and early March, recent results are concerning. The Ducks’ plan of bringing in a boatload of transfers hasn’t seemed to fully gel in 2021-22. This team is not clicking, and time in which to figure out the myriad issues surrounding this team is running short. The ball movement has been especially weak, with Altman calling out his team’s lack of cohesiveness following Thursday’s loss in Tempe.
The Ducks have been burning money for backers all season long, sitting at 9-16 ATS on the season. Altman’s squad has failed to cover the spread in five straight.
Arizona, meanwhile, is sitting pretty at No. 3 in the AP Poll and No. 2 in KenPom. Considering that Oregon is all the way down at No. 80 in KenPom, it’s easy to see why the Wildcats are expected to come away with a comfortable win. Oregon will come out to play and it’s likely we see a valiant effort for a portion of this game, but Arizona’s quality will allow them to pull away the later this game goes. There’s a reason that Lloyd’s squad is a perfect 14-0 straight up at home.
Arizona has so many strengths as a team that it’s difficult to point them all out in one article. They’re extremely tall, led by Azuolas Tubelis (6’11”), Christian Koloko (7’1”), and Oumar Ballo (7’0”), and lead the nation in offensive rebounding. They have firepower offensively and rank 3rd in scoring offense (84.8 points per game), led by go-to-guy Bennedict Mathurin (17.2 PPG).
The Ducks have been faltering as of late and are playing on short rest after their tournament dreams were crushed on the first leg of the road trip to the desert. Give us the Wildcats at home.
Prediction: Arizona -13 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Arizona plays at the ninth-fastest pace in the country, according to KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. The Wildcats look to get the ball out in transition and should be able to do just that against a mediocre Oregon defense.
It’s never a good sign when a Power 5 team ranks outside the Top 100 on either side of the ball in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metrics. The Ducks rank all the way down at 105th in KenPom’s defensive rankings, so Arizona should be able to score points in bunches in this matchup against a below-average unit by power conference standards.
The problem with this total is that it takes two to tango, and the Ducks may not be up for the dance. Oregon has cratered offensively as of late, scoring 57 against Arizona State, 62 against Washing State, 64 in a loss to Cal, and 68 in a win over Stanford. The Sun Devils and Bears both pressured the Ducks relentlessly, and Oregon didn’t know how to respond.
Arizona ranks No. 7 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency — this is not a team you want to see when your offense has been struggling. The Wildcats allow only 65.2 points per game despite playing at a blistering tempo. This is a very, very good defense and we can’t trust the Ducks to score against them.
Arizona will be able to score, but I’m dubious that the Ducks will contribute. The Wildcats are 4-1 to the Under in their last five games with a total above 150.
Prediction: Under 150.5 (-110)
Best bet
It's a red flag when a power conference team ranks outside the Top 100 on either side of the ball, as Oregon does defensively.
The Ducks don’t do anything especially well defensively and just allowed 81 points to the Sun Devils. Arizona will be eager to light up the scoreboard to avenge the seven straight defeats they’ve suffered to Dana Altman and the Ducks.
We like Arizona to prove their superiority this season as they go up and over their team total.
Pick: Arizona Team Total Over 82.5 (-115)
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