The Michigan State Spartans and Oregon Ducks are two of the hottest teams in the nation, putting their respective streaks on the line in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament Friday.
Both programs have anchored those winning ways in defense, which is highlighted in my Oregon vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for March 14.
Who will win Oregon vs Michigan State?
The Spartans are slight favorites, with the outright odds giving MSU an implied win probability of 69% versus the Ducks.
Michigan State could play its way into a No. 1 seed if it can impress in the Big Ten tournament. The Green and White will advance.
Oregon vs Michigan State prediction
My best bet: Under 143.5 (-110 at bet365)
These two programs clashed back on February 8, with Michigan State winning 86-74 inside the Breslin Center and the final score blowing the closing total of 146 points out of the water. Both teams have come a long way since that matchup.
Oregon set off on an eight-game winning streak the following outing, turning up the intensity on defense down the home stretch. They allowed an average of just 66 points against in that span, including a 72-59 win over Indiana in Round 2 of the Big Ten tournament on Wednesday. Oregon is 2-6 to the Over/Under during this stretch.
The Spartans have reeled off seven straight victories, with those foes mustering only 65 points in return. Michigan State has darted up the defensive rankings in that stretch, entering the Big Ten postseason as the No. 5 team in defensive efficiency while locking down foes from outside (28% 3-pointer defense) and boasting a 1-6 O/U count in those games.
Michigan State is by far the toughest defense Oregon has faced in some time. The Ducks’ winning run has been helped along by opponents on the back half of the defensive ratings. Outside of edging Wisconsin (No. 3 defense in Big Ten), Oregon has beaten up on the No. 8 (twice), No. 11, No. 14, No. 15, No. 17, and No. 18 ranked defenses in the conference.
As for the Ducks' stop unit, they’re solid at defending in transition (ranked 76th overall at ShotQualityBets), which is where the Spartans do their best work. Michigan State has also been on the shelf for an extended period, having last played on March 9. That hiatus could cool down its offensive touch.
Neither team is especially dangerous from outside, with MSU and Oregon picking up a small percentage of their points from beyond the arc, so don’t expect this to become a shootout.
Game models range from 141 to 146, but the majority of those forecasts fall below the total of 143.5 points.
Oregon vs Michigan State same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 143.5
Jaxon Kohler 7+ rebounds
T.J. Bamba 10+ points
These two teams have tied their recent success to defense and aren’t the most explosive offenses.
Kohler collects seven or more boards for MSU, with projections calling for nine rebounds.
Bamba is coming off a 17-point performance on Thursday and has scored double figures in three straight games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oregon vs Michigan State odds
Oregon vs Michigan State live odds
Oregon vs Michigan State opening odds
- Spread: Oregon +5.5 (-110) | Michigan State -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Oregon +195 | Michigan State -240
- Over/Under: Over 143.5 (-110) | Under 143.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Oregon vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Michigan State is 10-2 to the Under in its last 12 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oregon vs. Michigan State.
How to watch Oregon vs Michigan State
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Friday, 3-14-2025 |
| Tip-off | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Big Ten Network |
Oregon vs Michigan State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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