The West Coast Conference Tournament tips off Thursday afternoon with a matchup between the No. 11 San Diego Toreros (5-26, 2-16 WCC) and the No. 10 Pacific Tigers (9-23, 4-14 WCC) at Orleans Arena in Paradise, NV.
San Diego finished the season on a high note and has put up points in bunches in this tournament before, whereas Pacific is looking to put an exclamation mark at the end of Dave Smart’s first season.
I’m taking the Over with my Pacific vs. San Diego predictions and college basketball picks for March 6.
Pacific vs San Diego prediction
Who will win Pacific vs San Diego?
Give me Pacific. I’d rather side with the team building momentum under a new head coach rather than one struggling through a disappointing season. Pacific has three different go-to players, and that tends to matter in March.
My best bet
Over 144.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The San Diego Toreros are 2-1 O/U in the WCC Tournament in the Steve Lavin era, averaging 152.7 total points per game. That’s not a surprise given his program’s identity as a team that likes to push the pace, ranking 27th in adjusted tempo (KenPom).
To call it a down season for San Diego would be an understatement. After posting 18 wins a season ago, Lavin’s squad bottomed out with just five victories in the regular season.
Of course, there’s one important explanation for the dropoff — health. According to the team’s website, the Toreros had 13 players miss at least one game due to injury (the most in the country), and as many as nine miss multiple games. Just two players have featured in every game.
That lack of continuity has shown on the court. As they’ve been healthier to end the year, their typical brand of high-scoring basketball has been showcased (5-1 O/U in their last six games).
The Pacific Tigers also ended the year on a run toward the Over, going 4-1 O/U in their last five. They have three capable scorers in Elijah Fisher (15.9 ppg), Elias Ralph (14.6), and Lamar Washington (13.4). These three should be able to take advantage of an up-tempo environment at a neutral site (Orleans Arena in Paradise, NV) against a defense surrendering 79.1 ppg.
The Tigers have alternated between being an Under team and an Over team. Smart’s squad started the year 2-8 O/U, went on a 7-2 O/U run, and then a 1-6 O/U stretch. They finished the year 4-1 O/U, and I’m betting that this streaky team continues its current form of high-scoring games against a fast-paced opponent.
Pacific vs San Diego same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 144.5
Pacific -1.5
San Diego ranks 291st overall on KenPom (309th on offense, 234th on defense). That’s 10 spots behind Pacific, which ranks 281st overall (267th on offense, 270th on defense).
There could be some validity to the point that San Diego has struggled in part due to injury. The thing is, the recent numbers don’t support the Toreros being a more effective team overall lately (294th in BartTorvik since February 1; Pacific ranks 252nd).
Smart has given the Pacific faithful a reason to be optimistic for the future despite his team winning just nine games. He’s widely regarded as one of the top Canadian basketball coaches around and his team surpassed its low expectations heading into the season, going Over its regular season win total.
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Pacific vs San Diego odds
Pacific vs San Diego live odds
Pacific vs San Diego opening odds
- Spread: Pacific -1.5 | San Diego +1.5
- Moneyline: Pacific -123 | San Diego +106
- Over/Under: Over 145.5 | Under 145.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pacific vs San Diego betting trend to know
San Diego is 5-1 O/U in its last six games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Pacific vs. San Diego.
How to watch Pacific vs San Diego
| Location | Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Thursday, 3-6-2025 |
| Tip-off | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Pacific vs San Diego key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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