The Michigan Wolverines welcome the Penn State Nittany Lions to the Crisler Center tonight.
Although both teams are unranked, PSU is on a five-game winning streak and could crack the AP Top 25 with a big road win here. Oddsmakers don't expect the Nittany Lions to get that victory, however, with college basketball odds opening with the Wolverines as 3.5-point home favorites.
Here are my best free Penn State vs. Michigan college basketball picks and predictions for January 4.
Penn State vs Michigan best odds
Penn State vs Michigan picks and predictions
I don't want to overreact to the Wolverines' most recent win against Maryland where they had an incredible 44-13 halftime lead. One dominant half does not erase their shaky play over the last month where they lost four of their previous six games, including a defeat at home to Central Michigan last Thursday.
Sure, all four of those defeats were close contests but close isn't going to cut it as 4-point faves against a red-hot PSU team today.
The Nittany Lions have won five in a row, which includes a double-digit victory on the road versus Illinois and an 83-79 win against Iowa on New Year's Day.
Although their offensive production can be a bit volatile due to their reliance on 3-point shooting, they're still one of the most accurate teams in the country from beyond the arc (38.8 3PT%). They also run plenty of ball screens with star guard Jalen Pickett pulling the strings, and Michigan struggles to defend screens.
Michigan allows the 2nd most PPG against ball screens in the country. Penn State is ranked 12th in ball screen scoring.
— Dylan Burkhardt (@umhoops) January 4, 2023
Penn State allows the 3rd most PPG against post-ups in the country. Michigan is ranked 17th in post-up scoring.
Mismatch both ways.https://t.co/nnwB6vvIpD
It's never easy to play on the road in Ann Arbor but PSU has a very experienced squad that won't be phased by playing in hostile territory. Back the Nittany Lions on the spread.
My best bet: Penn State +4 (-107 at Pinnacle)
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Penn State vs Michigan spread analysis
The Nittany Lions are coming off a home victory against Iowa where they jumped out to a 44-26 lead at halftime and held on for their fifth win in a row.
It's been a nice turnaround for PSU who had lost three of five before this run. However, all three of those defeats were close contests with the Lions losing 61-59 to Virginia Tech, falling to Clemson on the road in overtime, and being defeated by Michigan State in a game where the Spartans pulled away in the final two minutes.
The Wolverines are coming off an 81-46 beatdown of Maryland, embarrassing the Terrapins by jumping out to a 19-1 lead and holding them to 26% shooting while winning the rebounding battle 44-30.
That was a performance they desperately needed after losing last Thursday to a Central Michigan team that is ranked just 248th in the nation in adjusted efficiency margin, according to KenPom.
These are the two best teams in the country when it comes to taking care of the ball, with PSU boasting the lowest turnover rate and Michigan just behind them.
In terms of analytics, there isn't much separating these conference foes, either. Penn State is 32nd in adjusted offensive efficiency while Michigan is 33rd, and the Nittany Lions are 63rd in adjusted defensive efficiency with the Wolverines 72nd.
Penn State vs Michigan Over/Under analysis
The Nittany Lions rank just 275th in the country in adjusted tempo but they've still been able to get buckets thanks to their skilled perimeter players.
Pickett is arguably the best all-around player in the conference and leads the school in scoring (16.8 ppg), passing (7.5 apg), rebounds (7.4 rpg), and steals (1.4 spg).
He's surrounded by a trio of snipers in Seth Lundy, Andrew Funk, and Myles Dread, who combine to knock down 7.6 threes per game at a 43.3% clip.
The Wolverines will have a tough time defending that but should be able to have some offensive success of their own. Penn State has a small lineup with freshman Kebba Njie its only true big man. Njie averages just 13.4 minutes per game and has a tendency to get into foul trouble.
That makes them very vulnerable in the post against Michigan center Hunter Dickinson, who averages 18.8 ppg on 57.1 FG%.
The Wolverines also have Jett Howard (14.6 ppg) and Kobe Bufkin (12.1 ppg) who will need to step up as facilitators after point guard Jaelin Llewellyn suffered a season-ending injury at the start of December.
Penn State vs Michigan betting trend to know
The Nittany Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Penn State vs. Michigan.
Penn State vs Michigan game info
| Location: | Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 4, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Big Ten Network |
Penn State vs Michigan key injuries
Penn State: Caleb Dorsey F (Questionable).
Michigan: Jaelin Llewellyn G (Out).
