Providence vs Marquette Odds, Picks and Predictions: Golden Eagles Too Bright For Friars

A big-time road test awaits Providence as it looks to build on its NCAA Tournament resume when it takes on #4 Marquette.

Providence is playing its best basketball of the season. They'll enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak with four wins in their last five. Its last win was a big one against Xavier, where the Friars had to make plays late in a hostile environment. Marquette has played well lately, too. It rebounded from getting dismantled against Connecticut and won two straight in blowout fashion. While the Big East regular season crown is likely out of reach, it still maintains a slight chance of grabbing a one-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Winning games like tonight is a must to keep those hopes alive.

What's the best bet in this one? Find out when we look at the college basketball odds and give it in our college basketball picks and predictions for Wednesday, February 28th.

Providence vs Marquette best odds

Providence vs Marquette picks and predictions

We've already talked about and profited on the Tyler Kolek avenging-a-loss factor this season. Tonight, we have another chance to do that. 

Although Kolek played quite well, Providence took care of Marquette earlier this season in a 13-point win. We're betting on him playing well in a revenge spot. In addition, we'll also get a chance to bet on Kolek when he sees his time at Marquette ticking down.

"Somebody brought it up to me. Three (home) games left after this one," Kolek said. "Even at the end of the game, we walk around to all the fans and just taking all those little moments in and cherishing everything.

Situationally, I like what I see and take advantage of it. My best bet is going to be Kolek Over 15.5 points.

I mentioned earlier how Kolek seems to relish these rematches, particularly after a loss, and how we had profited off that angle already once this season. That came against Butler when the Bulldogs ended Marquette's nation-best home streak. Kolek would exact his revenge a month later in Indiana when Marquette met Butler a second time, scoring 27 points and bringing home a Marquette win. This has been a common refrain throughout his career: If a team beats him once a season, his scoring seems to jump significantly in the second matchup. Let's bank on it here.

The matchup favors Kolek quite a bit, too. There's a reason he scored 21 points in the first matchup when these teams met. That's because where Providence struggles to defend is where Kolek tends to excel.

Defending simple pick-and-rolls has been a big issue for Providence this season. The Friars rank in the bottom 25% of college basketball against it from a points-per-possession perspective and are 4th worst in the Big East against it. Kolek has faced a few teams that rank similarly in this metric: Creighton, Georgetown, and Depaul. He's gone Over this total in all but one of those matchups. That one came two games ago when he seemingly had his eyes set on breaking an assist record as he dished out 18 against DePaul.

Compounding these issues for Providence is how much it struggles to defend hand-offs. From a metrics standpoint, this is where its defense is at its worst. That will always be an issue when facing a shooter like Kolek, and he's averaged 41% shooting on such sets this season. Given his recent play, he should be able to get a fair amount of looks on this, particularly with Providence being focused on Kam Jones in these actions.

Take Kolek to do what he's done much of the season and his career. That's an even more dynamic scoring threat than usual when his team is in a revenge spot. He also has a matchup where he can score in many different ways.

My best bet: Tyler Kolek over 16.5 points (-110 at Bet365)

Providence vs Marquette same-game parlay

Tyler Kolek Over 16.5 points

Marquette moneyline

+105 at bet365

We're keeping this relatively straightforward and parlaying our best bet with Marquette to get the win.

I projected a 10-point win for the Eagles here, but given the situational aspect of things, I wouldn't be surprised if it's more comfortable than that. A play on Marquette to win is a play on the angle we've talked about throughout this one: They usually respond well in revenge spots. Providence's failure to guard ball-screening actions will be its eventual downfall here, as it will need more horses to keep up.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Providence vs Marquette spread and Over/Under analysis

I lean towards Marquette here, but I need a more playable edge to get involved.

As mentioned above, I projected Marquette as a 10-point favorite here. The line has moved towards the Eagle's favor, but 11.5 is too much for me to get involved in. Within the same token, I have no interest in backing Providence here either, as it would involve stepping in front of one of the best offenses in the nation in a revenge spot at home. I'll pass on either side and see if I can get involved in Marquette in-game at a single-digit number. 

The projection for this is 148, and with a total of around 150, I have a slight lean to the Under. However, yet again, I need more of a playable edge. 

I have no real concerns about how Marquette will find offense, but I wonder how effectively and for how long the Providence offense can execute in the halfcourt. You wouldn't accuse this Eagles' defense of being a beater, but it has made some solid strides over the last month. There is not much of a direction trends-wise on a side here either, as the previous ten matchups are an even .500 to the Over and Under.

Providence vs Marquette betting trend to know

Marquette has hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 28 games (+6.60 Units / 6% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Providence vs. Marquette.

Providence vs Marquette game info

Providence vs Marquette key injuries

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