Providence vs UConn Odds, Picks and Predictions: Friars Cover Questionably Large Spread

Big East rivals will collide on Wednesday night as the Providence Friars visit the Connecticut Huskies in the second meeting between these teams this season.

No. 20 Providence won the first clash back on January 4 and is riding a two-game winning streak heading into Wednesday’s game. No. 18 UConn has won four of its last five after suffering through a mini-slump in January.

While the Friars came out on top last time, the Huskies have been a far better team at home this season. We’ll break down what to expect from tonight’s matchup in our college basketball picks and predictions for Providence vs. Connecticut on February 22. 

Providence vs UConn best odds

Providence vs UConn picks and predictions

Providence may not be a recruiting hotbed, but it has built a strong roster by aggressively and strategically using the transfer portal over the last couple of years.

That has allowed the school to create an experienced team that includes sophomore Devin Carter (formerly of South Carolina), sophomore Bryce Hopkins (Kentucky), and senior Noah Locke (Louisville), part of a lineup in which all five starters arrived via the transfer portal.

The approach has made it relevant on the national stage, and turned the team into one of the best squads in the Big East. The Friars are 12-4 in the conference, with wins over UConn, the Marquette Golden Eagles, and the Creighton Bluejays highlighting their resume.

That first win over Connecticut looms large over tonight’s game. At the time, UConn was the No. 4 team in the country, but the Friars were able to shut down the Huskies all game long. In a defensive struggle, both teams shot about 35% from the field, but UConn couldn’t hit from deep, going just 5-for-22 from 3-point range. As a result, Providence pulled away easily in the second half to take the 73-61 win.

Nobody expects things to be so easy for Providence the second time around. For one, the Friars are perfect at home this year but have gone just 4-5 in away games — a mark that worsens to 5-7 if you include their neutral court contests. The quality of competition plays a part in that discrepancy, but there’s still a notable difference the way Providence has played when it leaves campus.

Now it visit Connecticut, which has played like one of the best teams in the country this year, even if its record doesn’t quite reflect that anymore. After starting out 14-0, the Huskies went through a skid where they lost six of eight games, which saw their national profile dip a bit. Since that time, they’ve won four of five, with the only loss being a 3-point defeat at Creighton earlier this month.

It’s easy to see why rating systems like KenPom — which has the Huskies at No. 6 in the country — love UConn. Connecticut doesn’t have any major weaknesses, for starters. Junior forward Adama Sanogo and sophomore guard Jordan Hawkins give the Huskies a great one-two punch on offense, with both scoring over 16 points per game for a team that averages 78 points per night. 

Connecticut can play defense as well. It gives up just 64.3 points per game and holds opponents to just 29.3% from beyond the arc. While Providence has similar offensive numbers to the Huskies, it can’t plan to be nearly as stingy on defense, allowing 69.6 points per game despite playing a similar pace.

However, while UConn deserves to be a home favorite, these teams profile as very competitive with each other. That makes tonight’s big line something of a surprise. Given how well the Friars handled Connecticut in the last meeting, and their overall success in Big East play this year, the fact that they come in as 7.5-point underdogs is almost shocking. 

I think that line is off by at least two or three points. There’s a lot of value to taking Providence on the spread tonight as this is a winnable game for the Friars, and definitely one I see going down to the wire.

My best bet: Providence +7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Providence vs UConn spread analysis

There hasn’t been much movement on the spread for tonight’s game. Connecticut opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and while the number has bounced around by a point or so throughout the day, the consensus line is still UConn -7.5. 

Both of these teams have played great against the number this year. Providence is 17-10 ATS on the season, while the Huskies are 16-10-1 ATS. 

The Friars have been particularly good for bettors as of late. They've covered in six of their last eight games, all of which have come in Big East play. It does feel like sportsbooks and even some analytical models are missing something with Providence, as they continue to outperform expectations both in terms of their straight up results and what they’ve done against the spread. 

I expect that to continue tonight. That’s no disrespect to the Huskies, who are a slightly better team and have seemingly rebounded from their earlier slump. However, 7.5 points is just too much against a team like Providence that hasn’t lost a game by more than eight points since November.

If you were just asking me who I think wins this game, I’d take UConn. But the value on the spread is clearly on Providence, and that’s also true on the moneyline, where you can get as much as +275 on the Friars to pull off what would be only a moderate upset.

Providence vs UConn Over/Under analysis

The total on this game opened at 144 points. That number has steadily come down throughout the day, and as of noon on Wednesday, we’re now looking at a consensus Over/Under of about 142.5, though some books are going as low as 142.

It’s hard to peg a number for these two teams, as neither one tries to dictate the pace of a game in the way some of their Big East rivals do. Both UConn and Providence have played in shootouts this year, but have also played in plenty of games with totals of less than 140 points. The first meeting between the two teams topped out at a total of 134, which may explain why the public bet down that 144 number pretty quickly.

Providence has been playing to bigger numbers as of late, hitting the Over in three of its last five, and going over 140 points in four of those games. Connecticut has easily played to the Under by double digits in three of its last four, but also played one game to a total of 159 against Marquette during that stretch.

Overall, I’m inclined to go with the public and take the Under here. The number is just a bit too high for teams that have shown they don’t run the court well. Both teams also play excellent perimeter defense, which should keep the scoring under control just like in the first meeting. 

Providence vs UConn betting trend to know

Providence is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Providence vs. UConn.

Providence vs UConn game info

Providence vs UConn key injuries

Pages related to this topic