With both Providence and Villanova coming off losses to Top 10 opponents earlier this week, both programs are in desperate need of a win as they tumble down the Big East standings.
The college basketball odds have the Wildcats as 4.5-point favorites at home despite the Friars being the far more consistent team this season. Ultimately, this game will come down to which coach can get more out of their offense in what’s expected to be a low-scoring defensive battle.
Find out where my best bets lie in my free college basketball picks for Providence vs. Villanova on Sunday, February 4.
Providence vs Villanova best odds
Providence vs Villanova picks and predictions
In Kim English’s first year as head coach of Providence, the former George Mason bench boss has leaned on quality defense to carry his team and give it a real shot to make the NCAA Tournament. Defense has become even more important for the Friars since losing second-leading scorer Bryce Hopkins for the season in early January.
Providence was averaging 75.2 points per game before he went down, but since then English’s team is scoring 71.3 ppg. While not a major drop off, losing the second-best scorer on an offense that sits just 135th in adjusted offensive efficiency certainly doesn’t make scoring easier.
The Friars are shooting just 32.1% from three and 68.9% from the free throw line. Outside of guard Devin Carter and forward Josh Oduro, they don’t have much in terms of trustworthy scoring threats and aren’t a high-paced offense, ranking 128th in adjusted tempo.
That bodes well for Kyle Neptune’s Villanova program which could use a win in his second season at the helm. The Wildcats have struggled this season, but the defense has shown promise. It’s allowing just 68.4 ppg, 95th, and ranks 43rd in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Villanova has managed to hold opponents to 42.6% shooting from the field and 33.7% from three. The Wildcats have also been one of the best at not giving opponents free points, as they don’t foul much and allow just 16.6 free throw attempts per game.
Having to play four Top 25 ranked Big East teams already this season has made an indent on Neptune’s conference record, but outside of the two games against Marquette, the defense has impressed. Nova managed to hold both UConn and Creighton to just 66 points and Providence’s offense will be far less of a challenge.
The real challenge for Villanova will be putting up points against the Friars. English’s squad has been one of the best defensive teams in the country and ranks eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing just 66.5 ppg.
Teams have simply not been able to shoot against Providence — the program is holding opponents to 39.8% shooting from the floor, 43.9% from two, and 31.3% from three — or get to the free throw line with Providence putting opponents on the charity stripe just 17 times per game. It’s also 24th in the country in blocks with five per game.
The Wildcats rank 58th in adjusted offensive efficiency but are one of the slowest offenses in the country and sit 328th in adjusted tempo. While Neptune’s team is averaging 73.8 ppg, its shooting has been a major issue (42.2% from the floor, 32.6% from deep).
Two offenses that can’t shoot and don’t push the pace going against one elite defense and another underrated one? That Under sure sounds nice.
My best bet: Under 137.5 (-110 at bet365)
Providence vs Villanova same-game parlay
Under 137.5
Providence +4.5
Justin Moore Under 10.5 points
With Providence’s impressive defensive play this season, including holding Marquette and UConn to an average of 65.5 points, the Friars can keep this one low-scoring and control the clock. Both Carter and Oduro have shown the ability to get in an offensive rhythm and should be able to do enough to cover against Villanova on the road.
They should also be able to slow an already stagnant Wildcats offense that lacks consistency outside of leading scorer Eric Dixon. While Justin Moore has been the team’s second leading scorer this season with 10.8 points per game, he’s hit a slump in recent weeks.
Moore has had more than eight points just once in his last eight games. Over that span he’s averaging only 5.9 points per game.
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Providence vs Villanova spread and Over/Under analysis
It’s been Villanova -4.5 the whole way through with most books opening there and remaining there. The Wildcats are 10-11 ATS this season and 2-6 over the last eight games. Providence is 12-8-1 ATS and 7-3 over its last 10.
With the Friars impressive defense, the game total opened as low as 135.5 before trending up to 138 with most books now at 137.5. Villanova is 10-11 betting the Over this season and Providence is just 8-13 betting the Over.
Providence vs Villanova betting trend to know
Villanova has hit the game total Under in 11 of their last 19 games at home (+2.20 Units / 11% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Providence vs. Villanova.
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Providence vs Villanova game info
| Location: | Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, February 4, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
CBS Sports Network |
Providence vs Villanova key injuries
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