The Purdue Boilermakers have struggled in the home stretch of the Big Ten schedule, losing back-to-back outings before tonight’s road game against the Michigan State Spartans.
The Boilermakers are desperate for a win, and my Purdue vs. Michigan State predictions expect more fight from the visitors.
Find out why in my college basketball picks for February 18.
Purdue vs Michigan State prediction
My best bet
Purdue Boilermakers +3.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Purdue Boilermakers looked bad in a 10-point home loss to Wisconsin on the weekend, but the Badgers got hot in the second half.
Purdue watched Wisconsin hit at a 72% clip in the final 20 minutes, including a 6-for-12 finish from beyond the arc that gave the Badgers 12 triples on the day.
Purdue won’t have to worry about patrolling the perimeter against Michigan State tonight. The Spartans are among the worst outside shooting teams in the country and pick up only 21 points per game from 3-point range.
Instead, the Spartans like to create easy offense from defense. Tom Izzo’s teams always push the pace with a strong transition attack, then crash the boards for offensive rebounds and second-chance possessions.
Protecting the ball is paramount for Purdue. The Boilermakers are very efficient on offense, using up a good chunk of the clock on each possession. They only turn the ball over 10.5 times per game, resulting in 11.4 points allowed off those errors. They also do a good job limiting fastbreak buckets, a stat Michigan State ranks second in among all Div-I schools.
Much like how the Spartans want to generate offense from defense, Purdue can play defense on the offensive end. That methodical pace and offensive efficiency will put the breaks on Sparty, with MSU having to start a good chunk of possessions off the in-bounds.
Game projections call for a tight Big Ten tilt, with models ranging between a one and two-point margin. Painter has had success against Izzo in recent meetings, with the Boilermakers winning three straight and seven of the last 10 matchups with MSU.
With this spread giving up a half-point hook on the other side of three, I’ll take Purdue as +3.5 underdogs in a must-win encounter in East Lansing.
Purdue vs Michigan State same-game parlay (SGP)
Purdue +3.5
Under 148.5
Braden Smith 5+ assists
The Boilermakers have the ball control and patience to put an up-tempo MSU attack in the sand.
The Spartans don’t shoot well from outside but do protect the perimeter on the defensive end. These teams will have to battle for their buckets.
Michigan State’s perimeter pressure will force Smith to put the ball on the floor and find teammates against a stingy defense. He’s projected for as many as 8.8 dimes tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Purdue vs Michigan State odds
Purdue vs Michigan State live odds
Purdue vs Michigan State opening odds
- Spread: Purdue +3.5 | Michigan State -3.5
- Moneyline: Purdue +130 | Michigan State -155
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 | Under 148.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Purdue vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Michigan State has played Under the total in 12 of its last 19 games at home (+4.08 Units/19% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Michigan State.
How to watch Purdue vs Michigan State
| Location | Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI |
| Date | Tuesday, 2-18-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Purdue vs Michigan State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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