It’s a weak slate on Friday, February 18, however, the Atlantic-10 came through with a huge conference game on ESPN2.
The Richmond Spiders will stay in town to take on their rivals, the VCU Rams. Richmond and VCU have each won four of their last five games and are truly getting better as the month of February drags on.
Richmond already lost to VCU at home earlier this season, 64-62.
So will Richmond pull off an upset over VCU the second time around? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Richmond vs. VCU on February 18.
Richmond vs VCU odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
VCU opened as a 2.5-point favorite but has now jumped to as high as -3 at even odds at some sportsbooks. Meanwhile, the total has adjusted from 131 at open to 132 with some outlets already at 132.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Richmond vs VCU predictions
Predictions made on 2/18/2022 at 8:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Richmond vs VCU game info
• Location: Siegel Center, Richmond, VA
• Date: Friday, February 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Richmond at VCU betting preview
Injuries
Richmond: Dji Bailey G (Out).
VCU: Hason Ward F (Questionable), Jarren McAllister G (Out), Jamir Watkins F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Spiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Richmond vs. VCU.
Richmond vs VCU picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
It’s kind of gone under the radar, however, the VCU Rams are currently one of the best defenses in the nation. The Rams have allowed an effective field goal percentage of just 43.7% while earning 25.9% turnovers on the season.
However, defensive rebounding hasn’t been great, with VCU allowing opponents to earn 33.6% of offensive rebounds. Plus, the Rams are so aggressive on the defensive end that fouls can get high at times.
VCU might struggle to earn many turnovers going up against Richmond. Richmond is one of the best teams in the nation at limiting turnovers, giving up just 14.4% per game. However, Richmond might not be able to capitalize on VCU’s defensive rebounding woes because Richmond is essentially just as bad on the offensive glass.
Currently, opponents have shot just 27.1% from deep and 44.8% from inside the arc against VCU. The offense is going to be hard to come by for Richmond, however, the Spiders are still shooting above average numbers with a 34.3% three-point shooting percentage and 52.9% from inside the arc.
On the other hand, VCU’s offense is why they’ve struggled to get recognition. The Rams are turning the ball over 22.3% of the time and only earn 26.4% offensive rebounds per game. However, VCU does shoot 35.1% from long range, but will rarely take three-point shots, to begin with.
Richmond is earning just under 20% turnovers and has been much better on the defensive glass than VCU.
But Richmond is also allowing an effective field goal percentage of 50.8%, allowing 35.6% from deep and 49.3% from inside the arc. Ultimately, VCU is going to get the better looks from the field and the turnover and rebounding battle will more than likely be close to equal by the time the game is over.
I’ll take my chances with the VCU Rams.
Prediction: VCU -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Despite Richmond shooting an effective field goal percentage of 52.3%, VCU’s defense should make things a bit harder. Richmond needs 17.6 seconds per possession on offense this year, however, opponents against VCU are using 18.3 seconds per possession this season.
The .7 second differential might not sound ridiculously high, but when you add up the many possessions in a game, it really can make a difference, especially against VCU’s vaunted D.
The Spiders love shooting the three, but VCU is allowing teams to shoot 27.3% from downtown. Meanwhile, VCU will rarely take threes and will focus on scoring inside. Fewer threes made also will have the Under.
Prediction: Under 132.5 (-110)
Best bet
I’ll stick with VCU. At the end of the day, defense travels and VCU has been one of the more elite defenses in the league.
Opponents are struggling to take shots against VCU early in the shot clock and that will only throw Richmond off its game a bit. Plus, if Richmond is going to throw up a bunch of threes, the Spiders have to be able to rebound their own misses.
This season, Richmond has only averaged 23.6% offensive rebounds.
Pick: VCU -2.5 (-110)
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